tornado warming a peachtree city, GA. lo shear è buono. Effettivamente c'è buona roba in giro
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Analista geopolitico del contesto Medio Orientale, specializzato in Nord Africa e Turchia, mi divido fra Roma, Istanbul, Cipro e Tunisi
Si va con il primo Moderate dell'anno.
Situazione interessante.
SPC AC 220558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AR...WRN TN AND NRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING... ...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY... A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 50 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL EXPAND NWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY TODAY WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ARE FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS MEMPHIS TN BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SSWWD ACROSS ERN AR. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AROUND 23/00Z. THESE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS A LINEAR MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 70 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE A STRONG WIND FIELD FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL JETS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST AS DISCRETE STORMS INITIATE IN ERN AR AND MOVE EWD INTO NW MS AND INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEMPHIS AT 03Z SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 400 TO 450 M2/S2 SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH A LONG-TRACK TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO HAVE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS CONDITIONAL UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS A LINE FORMS THIS EVENING AND MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE TN...NRN MS AND NRN AL. SOME WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 70 KT APPEAR POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERY FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. ...MID MS AND OH VALLEY... A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU EARLY THIS EVENING AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE IN THE MID-MS VALLEY. VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID LINEAR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FROM ERN IL SWD INTO WRN KY. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE LINE SURGES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY DURING THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME SUGGEST THAT A COOL SFC INVERSION WILL EXIST IN SPITE OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOR THIS REASON...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL EXCEPT IN SRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH 60 F. ..BROYLES/GARNER.. 01/22/2012
Allego qualche carta per oggi, WRF init 00Z.
Le carte si riferiscono alle 18 di questo pomeriggio
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always looking at the sky
"Long track tornadoes with long life is very highly possible. This is becoming a very serious situation. "Moderate Risk" PDS may be out for this event."
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Lo shear di velocità è più che valido e in un contesto convettivo del genere ci sta tenendo conto che le T stanno reggendo. Situazione pericolosa perchè delle grosse aree metropolitane potrebbero essere interessate da qualche tornadone bello forte. Guardando Ruc adesso se dovessi scegliere un target con le mappe attuali quasi quasi non andrei troppo a Nord dove le T sono più basse... Me ne starei forse a Greenville,MS pronto per andare su verso Cleveland, MS in Mississipi o Indianola,MS.
Ultima modifica di griffa-petrucci; 22/01/2012 alle 16:31
Andrea Griffa
www.cacciatoriditornado.it
www.tornado-tour.com
Coautore del libro "temporali e tornado"
Si si, direi che quella zona dovrebbe essere un buon target.
Gli ultimi Ruc mostrano la convezzione partire ad ovest del confine dell'AK.
1ref_sfc_f14.png
Mi piazzo ad Helena AK, preferisco la zona leggermente piu a nord che dovrebbe avere i venti leggermente piu sudorientali, ancora abbastanza a sud di Memphis con buone opzioni di strade verso E e NE.
Ultima modifica di NikoDj; 22/01/2012 alle 16:55
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always looking at the sky
Occhio alal sospettissima supercella su Ga, Alabama.
purtoppo non ho gdr
-
per me i fenomeni più violenti saranno leggermente più a est. se fossi li darei un occhiata attorno a Columbus, Alabama
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Analista geopolitico del contesto Medio Orientale, specializzato in Nord Africa e Turchia, mi divido fra Roma, Istanbul, Cipro e Tunisi
Meteocattolica.eu / Meteogabiccemare.eu : Osservatorio Meteorologico di Cattolica e Gabicce Mare
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always looking at the sky
purtoppo sto con i radar di terza categoria
Intellicast - Weather Active Map circa 15 minuti fa qui era molto sospetto. Vorrei prima o poi scaricare il gsr.
niente al gsr è un cluster di multicelle. Senza radar buono non vado da nessuna parte.
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Analista geopolitico del contesto Medio Orientale, specializzato in Nord Africa e Turchia, mi divido fra Roma, Istanbul, Cipro e Tunisi
Direzione Ovest verso De Witt - AK
primi CU in formazione verso SSW.
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Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE
AND ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN OK. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL
INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS NE AR/WRN TN...AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS. VERTICAL SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND THE
MIXED STORM MODES WILL FAVOR A RISK OF A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...THOMPSON
Una PDS in Gennaio e' davvero rara!!!!
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always looking at the sky
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