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Conselice said the calculations are a way of understanding humanity's existence — and its future. If there turn out to be more civilizations out there in the galaxy than the new math predicts, that means that either life can evolve under far broader conditions than just Earth-like ones, or it means that civilizations tend to be far longer-lived than ours thus far.
"If we find a lot of them, that's a good sign that we might have a very long lifetime for our civilization," Conselice said.On the other hand, if the search for extraterrestrial life continues to turn up empty, it could mean that life only rarely evolves, or that when civilization arises, it tends to self-destruct rapidly. Perhaps, the Milky Way was relatively bustling a few billion years ago, but those sparks of life have since gone out. In the end, Shostak said, there is only one way to find out.
"You're only going to be able to write a paper in which you can make any estimate of how many alien societies there are once you find one or two," Shostak said.
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