S&P: altro giro altro regalo?

[Professeur Bugigiò]

La famosa agenzia di rating Standard and Poor's ha emesso questo comunicato

Rationale
The ratings on Italy are supported by the country's relatively prosperous and well-diversified economy, with GDP per capita remaining close to the 'AA' median. Italy also benefits greatly from membership of EMU, which has led to plummeting borrowing costs and protects Italy from potential balance-of-payments pressures. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the European Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) as a policy anchor has deteriorated steadily.
The very high general government debt and interest burdens will continue to greatly limit policy flexibility in the long term. Furthermore, despite low borrowing costs, the interest burden accounts for more than 11% of spending at the general government level and 20% for the central government. Not only is the debt-to-GDP ratio one of the highest among rated sovereigns, but its decade-long slow decline is also now reversing. Government debt is expected to rise toward 109% of GDP in 2005, more than 2x the 'AA' median (42% of GDP). This follows several years during which only unsustainable one-off measures engineered a moderate and decelerating decline in the debt ratio. The structural weakness of Italy's public finances will lead to general government budget deficits of more than 3% of GDP until at least 2008, unless a more vigorous policy of current expenditure control is effectively implemented.
The economy's growth potential is low and the international competitiveness of Italian companies has been on a declining trend for a decade. This is due to obstacles in the areas of physical and institutional infrastructure, regional inequalities, and structural rigidities, especially in the labor market. In the long term, growth prospects could dim further, as Italy has one of the most adverse demographic profiles among rated sovereigns.



Outlook
The negative outlook reflects the increasing downside risks to Italy's public finances in an environment of low growth and weakening peer pressure through the SGP. Compounded by weak potential output growth, which the government estimates at 1.3% per year, the debt ratio will peak at 110% of GDP in 2007. The government's expectation of rapid structural budgetary improvements, and projections of revenues of about 1% of GDP per year raised through asset sales, appear optimistic. Consequently, the resulting officially targeted debt ratio of 101% of GDP by 2009 also seems difficult to achieve, with a ratio of 107% of GDP for that year looking more plausible.
A general election will be held in April 2006 and neither of the two main political groupings has presented a cohesive medium- to long-term strategy to address Italy's structural budgetary imbalances. The current government's medium-term financial plan stops short of outlining any concrete measures to deal effectively with Italy's fiscal crisis. As both the center-left and the center-right suffer from deep internal divisions, any post-electoral consolidation strategy is likely to be modest.
The outlook could revert to stable if structural measures were implemented that would ensure the resumption of a clear, significant, and sustainable downward trend of the government debt ratio. Conversely, the long-term rating could be lowered within the next year if no signs of a sustainable and coherent debt reduction strategy emerge after the April 2006 elections.






Per chi di voi e' lazzarone e non vuole leggere, si dice in due parole che se dopo le elezioni non verranno effettuate manovre di rinnovo STRUTTURALE del Paese, S&P sara' pronta a downgradarci ulteriormente.

Da AA- a qualcosa sotto, molto presumibilmente A+.

Giusto per intenderci, se 30 anni fa la Spagna ci faceva un baffo, ora dobbiamo competere con la Grecia.

Ecco qui i rating delle Nazioni con l'Euro. Nell'ordine Moody's, S&P, Fitch and R&I.

1)Austria 13)Aaa 25)AAA 37)AAA 49)WR
2)Belgium 14)Aa1 26)AA+ 38)AA 50)AA+
3)Finland 15)Aaa 27)AAA 39)AAA 51)AAA
4)France 16)Aaa 28)AAA 40)AAA 52)AAA
5)Germany 17)Aaa 29)AAA 41)AAA 53)AAA
6)Greece 18)A1 30)A 42)A 54)AA-
7)Ireland 19)Aaa 31)AAA 43)AAA 55)AAA
8)Italy 20)Aa2 32)AA- 44)AA 56)AA+
9)Luxembourg 21)Aaa 33)AAA 45)AAA 57)AAA
10)Netherlands 22)Aaa 34)AAA 46)AAA 58)AAA
11)Portugal 23)Aa2 35)AA- 47)AA 59)AA-
12)Spain 24)Aaa 36)AAA 48)AAA 60)AA+




Siamo alla frutta....

[Fabio]

Altra batosta...e non vedo vie d'uscita..con gli attuali parametri di Maastricht abbiamo le mani legate..

[Professeur Bugigiò]

Altra batosta...e non vedo vie d'uscita..con gli attuali parametri di Maastricht abbiamo le mani legate..

Non e' comunque una scusa da accampare. Tutte le altre nazioni hanno i parametri da rispettare.

[Fabio]

Non e' comunque una scusa da accampare. Tutte le altre nazioni hanno i parametri da rispettare.

Vero, la differenza è che noi ci portiamo sul groppone anni o meglio decenni in cui abbiamo commesso errori grossolani e non, a partire dalla gestione del disavanzo pubblico arrivando all'errata gestione della politica fiscale (senza distinzioni fra destra e sinistra, Prodi,Berlusconi,Amato e compagnia bella..).

Comunque "grazie" ai parametri di Maastricht non mi risulta uno e dico uno governo stabile nell'euro-zone (vedi Italia, Germania, Spagna e a breve salta pure Blair), l'Europa non ha scampo, l'Italia peggio ancora per i giÃ* citati problemi strutturali che ci portiamo appresso dal passato.

[roby4061]

cazzate, non badate a quello che dicono quei comunisti di S & P