Dipolo Artico

[roby85]

Ottobre 2014 è vicino alla neutalità, questa è la serie dal 1871 usando le 20° century reanalisi fino al 1947 e le reanalisi ncep-ncar, il dipolo è l'anomalia standardizzata rispetto ai valori dei singoli mesi, standardizzare rispetto ai valori di tutti i mesi(come fa la cpc per l'AO) darebbe valori diversi a causa della diversa variabilità delle slp nei vari mesi dell'anno(per l'AO di molto poichè c'è molta più variabilità in inverno motivo percui i valori più estremi sono quasi tutti nella stagione invernale-inizio primavera, per il dipolo molto meno).
I valori sono un poco diversi da quelli ad inizio td poichè c'è qualche anno in più su cui calcolare il pattern di riferimento; la covenzione dei segni è la stessa (dipolo + = alta pressione su nord russia) ma come già detto la scelta del segno è arbitraria e nella letteratura scientifica si trovano entrambe.

20c	jan	feb	mar	apr	may	jun	jul	aug	sep	oct	nov	dec
1871	0.98	0.53	0.42	−0.55	−0.50	−1.09	−1.43	−1.37	−0.23	0.73	−0.73	0.23
1872	0.67	0.19	−0.04	−0.48	−0.66	−1.08	−1.90	−1.49	−1.13	0.26	−0.47	−0.14
1873	0.48	0.35	0.41	−1.26	−0.83	−1.32	−1.23	−0.93	0.11	−0.44	−0.19	−0.10
1874	0.66	0.61	0.40	0.99	−0.46	−0.55	−0.16	−0.32	0.30	1.02	−0.15	−0.07
1875	0.53	1.13	0.99	−0.23	1.32	0.18	−1.82	−0.99	−0.66	0.48	−0.62	0.77
1876	0.41	0.66	−0.48	−1.97	−0.19	−0.32	−1.09	−0.96	−1.29	−0.34	−0.77	0.12
1877	1.06	0.87	1.10	−0.83	−1.04	−0.42	−0.92	−1.49	−0.23	0.73	0.02	1.24
1878	0.65	0.19	0.26	−0.24	−0.06	−0.94	−1.02	−1.23	−0.07	−0.49	−0.49	−0.39
1879	0.49	−0.05	−0.19	−0.81	−0.01	−0.95	−1.43	−0.22	0.08	0.41	−0.95	−0.22
1880	0.54	0.82	0.13	1.52	0.76	−0.99	−1.82	−0.32	−0.27	−1.90	−0.34	−0.40
1881	−1.47	−0.16	−0.88	−0.24	−0.05	0.47	0.42	−0.17	−0.61	−0.93	0.08	0.84
1882	−0.32	0.26	0.47	−0.17	0.76	0.13	0.25	0.16	0.49	0.58	0.66	0.72
1883	1.21	1.99	0.32	0.84	0.09	−0.71	−0.93	0.41	0.30	0.13	0.97	0.33
1884	−0.67	0.94	1.61	−0.32	0.14	1.15	−1.04	0.22	−0.47	−0.59	−0.13	0.53
1885	0.39	−0.34	0.27	0.46	−2.06	0.02	−0.14	−1.29	1.39	−0.38	−0.83	−1.39
1886	−0.40	0.20	−1.03	−0.78	−0.66	0.24	0.48	0.82	−0.77	−0.23	−0.53	−0.40
1887	0.62	−1.75	−1.04	−0.29	−0.55	0.67	−0.03	0.09	−0.72	−0.98	−0.66	−0.20
1888	0.05	1.52	−0.63	−0.39	−0.37	0.02	−0.74	0.18	−0.45	−0.62	−0.23	1.87
1889	0.99	−0.24	0.01	0.83	0.14	1.11	−0.51	0.79	0.16	1.17	0.23	−0.37
1890	1.09	0.08	0.05	1.19	−0.45	0.70	−0.55	0.26	0.68	−0.59	1.29	−0.02
1891	−0.28	−0.41	−2.35	−0.42	−1.26	−0.89	−1.96	−0.80	0.51	2.14	0.30	1.12
1892	1.00	0.38	0.69	0.22	−1.49	−0.88	−0.46	−0.46	1.02	−0.92	−0.12	0.41
1893	−0.02	0.41	−0.69	0.14	−0.07	−0.72	−1.18	−1.71	−1.13	0.11	−1.38	1.24
1894	−0.82	−0.02	−0.24	0.62	−0.87	1.15	−0.34	0.02	−0.18	−1.08	0.78	−1.27
1895	0.52	−0.61	1.06	0.00	−0.32	0.06	−0.10	−0.64	0.55	−0.49	−0.63	−0.33
1896	−1.00	0.08	1.93	1.27	1.13	−0.65	0.96	0.26	0.36	−1.64	−0.52	1.27
1897	0.52	−0.85	1.08	1.75	0.31	−2.24	0.07	−0.58	0.13	0.69	−1.08	0.81
1898	−0.37	0.69	2.35	0.49	0.07	−0.72	−0.60	0.37	2.69	0.05	−0.35	−0.45
1899	0.30	0.87	−1.05	−0.20	−0.37	1.25	0.74	−2.19	0.21	−0.06	−0.20	1.03
1900	2.03	−1.35	−1.04	0.20	−1.19	−0.79	−0.54	−0.48	−0.03	0.19	0.22	0.73
1901	1.10	−1.91	−0.38	0.11	−0.77	0.36	0.02	−0.57	−0.33	0.27	−2.09	2.35
1902	−0.02	−2.44	0.00	1.22	0.54	−1.82	−0.84	0.48	−0.87	0.29	0.70	0.14
1903	0.42	−0.13	0.33	0.15	0.89	−1.19	−0.76	−0.65	−0.60	0.55	0.11	0.95
1904	0.67	1.33	0.45	1.51	0.80	1.48	−0.46	−0.81	0.21	1.70	−1.54	0.04
1905	−0.98	0.50	1.93	1.12	0.32	0.22	0.96	0.23	0.72	−0.17	−0.07	1.40
1906	1.44	0.93	0.52	0.00	−1.08	0.61	0.53	−0.66	0.32	0.81	0.39	−0.24
1907	0.61	0.60	1.33	0.69	−1.35	0.02	−1.34	0.76	1.79	1.52	1.61	2.24
1908	0.93	−0.12	1.28	−0.65	0.80	1.11	0.55	−0.13	1.02	0.37	0.22	1.00
1909	0.82	0.65	−0.09	0.12	−1.38	−0.87	0.77	0.69	−0.64	−0.43	−0.57	−0.79
1910	0.38	0.61	1.93	−0.97	0.25	−0.64	0.01	−0.72	−0.41	−0.43	−0.48	0.68
1911	0.58	0.08	1.17	−0.51	1.47	−1.35	−0.68	0.00	1.03	−1.27	0.18	0.80
1912	−0.85	−0.52	0.73	0.49	1.07	−0.60	−1.54	−0.30	−1.46	1.37	0.64	1.87
1913	0.47	0.62	0.99	1.14	−0.47	−0.30	0.02	0.59	−0.30	−0.98	1.65	0.74
1914	−0.67	−0.74	0.13	0.92	0.28	−0.55	−0.95	0.54	−1.23	0.45	0.70	−0.58
1915	1.81	0.02	−0.60	2.18	−1.92	−0.83	−0.11	−0.35	−0.72	0.13	−0.91	−0.97
1916	0.05	0.37	−0.19	−0.18	−0.35	−0.16	−0.28	−1.07	0.24	0.03	−0.62	0.61
1917	0.19	−0.61	−0.13	−1.10	−1.68	0.35	0.04	−0.82	0.21	0.64	0.39	−0.06
1918	−1.03	1.07	0.93	0.79	1.52	1.63	−0.84	−0.32	−0.20	1.05	0.30	1.30
1919	2.31	−1.29	−0.67	−0.72	1.72	1.93	−1.10	1.00	0.60	−0.55	−0.94	2.10
1920	1.12	0.46	1.31	−1.84	1.48	0.54	0.61	1.06	0.82	1.06	−0.12	−0.02
1921	−0.86	−0.27	1.37	−0.02	−0.40	0.72	−0.21	−0.19	0.15	1.11	0.01	1.79
1922	1.86	0.98	0.10	0.54	1.27	3.13	1.33	0.82	0.46	−0.13	0.58	0.16
1923	−0.03	0.09	0.12	0.91	1.36	0.13	0.90	−1.37	2.10	2.32	1.00	−0.01
1924	1.49	0.84	0.21	0.49	0.75	−0.13	0.66	0.30	0.57	1.34	−0.30	0.76
1925	0.40	0.19	1.72	−0.11	0.60	1.32	0.44	0.59	1.08	−1.27	−0.57	−0.76
1926	0.28	0.09	−0.47	1.11	−0.41	−0.26	0.65	0.14	−0.45	−0.93	−0.25	0.84
1927	0.96	1.80	1.19	0.42	−0.54	−0.75	0.80	−0.12	−2.01	0.09	−0.23	0.08
1928	1.85	1.05	−0.04	1.26	0.33	−0.88	0.68	0.60	0.99	−0.07	0.94	0.52
1929	−0.15	1.44	0.05	−0.65	0.39	0.48	0.35	1.03	2.34	1.05	0.25	2.16
1930	−0.59	0.92	0.81	0.91	1.46	0.17	0.29	0.06	−1.49	0.42	0.70	1.17
1931	0.52	0.56	−1.86	2.44	−0.25	−0.26	−0.19	−0.06	−0.09	−0.31	2.03	0.05
1932	−1.15	0.11	−1.17	−1.76	0.15	−0.53	−0.48	0.57	−0.15	0.24	−0.28	0.93
1933	3.04	0.64	−0.25	−1.24	0.32	−0.10	0.26	−0.01	0.70	−0.96	−0.11	−0.10
1934	0.43	−1.50	2.04	−0.71	0.18	−0.75	0.14	−0.06	1.33	−0.35	0.24	0.02
1935	−0.84	−0.35	−0.33	0.44	−0.84	−0.26	0.18	0.13	−0.81	2.25	0.95	0.55
1936	−0.03	−0.05	−0.74	0.39	−0.07	−0.14	−0.55	0.51	−1.40	0.38	0.66	0.06
1937	0.66	−1.28	0.09	0.74	0.47	0.60	−0.07	0.53	−0.53	−0.39	−0.02	0.60
1938	0.52	0.19	−0.13	0.25	0.17	1.62	0.91	0.37	1.41	2.19	1.06	2.13
1939	−0.08	−0.21	0.89	−0.21	1.33	−0.37	0.08	0.29	−1.40	0.42	0.30	−0.83
1940	0.87	−1.48	−0.52	−1.36	1.12	1.02	−0.80	0.69	2.18	−0.06	−0.35	0.66
1941	−1.71	0.51	0.21	0.23	0.52	0.17	0.00	−0.31	−0.96	−0.92	−0.14	1.02
1942	1.61	−1.17	−0.51	0.19	1.83	1.11	0.25	0.63	0.84	1.28	0.04	−0.02
1943	0.24	−0.74	−0.92	−0.11	−1.30	0.65	0.55	−1.42	−0.15	−0.11	0.35	1.65
1944	0.70	−0.03	1.28	−0.75	1.16	−0.19	0.09	0.15	0.86	0.92	0.12	0.60
1945	−0.68	1.12	1.22	0.04	−0.38	0.14	0.92	0.67	0.62	−0.20	−0.79	0.82
1946	0.28	0.04	1.17	0.25	−0.10	0.78	1.93	0.88	2.17	−0.27	−0.67	2.10
1947	2.10	−1.12	−1.26	0.86	−1.23	0.01	0.88	1.78	0.79	0.08	0.28	−0.12
ncep-ncar
1948	−0.25	0.03	0.39	0.06	−0.20	−0.50	−0.47	0.38	0.62	0.80	−0.86	−1.30
1949	−1.25	0.44	0.80	−0.38	−1.57	0.95	−0.79	−0.28	−0.59	−0.97	1.30	1.18
1950	0.96	−0.53	−0.13	−0.05	−1.19	0.56	−0.95	0.69	1.11	0.48	0.33	−1.18
1951	0.03	1.02	−2.13	−1.42	−0.70	−1.25	0.16	−0.01	−0.44	−0.40	−1.16	−0.73
1952	−0.56	−0.23	0.03	1.15	−0.68	0.14	−0.23	−0.84	−0.56	0.69	0.89	0.14
1953	−0.03	0.72	−1.15	−0.64	0.04	1.68	0.11	0.61	−1.06	0.59	1.65	−0.10
1954	−0.17	1.93	−0.57	0.55	1.37	−0.09	0.47	−0.93	−0.34	0.87	1.48	2.35
1955	−2.07	0.06	0.68	0.93	0.26	−0.34	1.06	1.06	1.42	−0.80	−1.55	−0.48
1956	0.03	2.23	0.69	0.97	1.13	−0.38	0.44	−0.32	−1.93	0.94	1.74	2.48
1957	0.11	0.40	−0.14	0.18	−2.09	−0.85	0.15	0.75	−0.08	2.09	0.00	−1.03
1958	0.32	−0.77	−0.86	0.48	0.52	−0.84	−1.60	−2.49	0.22	0.85	−0.30	−0.66
1959	−1.67	0.39	−0.32	0.44	−0.24	−0.24	1.15	−0.65	−0.55	1.92	0.30	1.76
1960	0.05	−2.40	0.22	0.40	2.05	−0.82	0.24	−1.14	0.31	−1.45	0.13	0.13
1961	0.08	−0.08	−1.78	−1.42	0.12	0.60	0.60	0.91	−1.28	0.83	0.19	−0.77
1962	−0.26	−1.50	−2.35	−0.04	−0.29	−0.04	−0.47	−0.74	0.90	−0.56	0.94	−0.53
1963	−1.17	−2.09	0.48	−0.28	1.79	0.29	−1.34	0.73	−0.41	1.37	−0.88	−1.02
1964	−0.16	0.86	0.87	1.59	0.61	0.51	1.80	−1.64	−0.70	0.49	−0.52	0.50
1965	−0.34	0.24	−0.68	1.40	−0.26	−0.96	−1.34	−0.41	−0.40	0.80	−0.24	0.65
1966	−1.38	−0.10	0.08	1.15	−0.23	1.07	−0.12	−1.83	−1.67	−0.63	−0.20	2.32
1967	−0.98	0.07	−0.01	−0.04	0.68	0.73	1.17	1.65	0.13	−0.44	0.80	−1.01
1968	−0.39	−1.01	−1.89	−0.94	−1.44	−0.72	−2.24	−1.28	0.21	−1.47	0.16	−0.41
1969	−0.67	0.91	−0.62	−0.35	0.55	−0.17	1.74	0.39	0.54	1.25	−0.49	0.64
1970	−0.56	−0.24	0.45	−0.44	0.15	1.13	0.05	0.13	1.46	0.41	−0.95	−0.83
1971	−1.85	2.62	−0.38	−0.18	0.95	−1.90	−0.68	0.81	−0.15	−0.37	−2.12	0.27
1972	1.81	−1.03	0.97	−0.95	0.71	2.28	−0.33	0.22	0.93	0.87	1.16	−0.04
1973	0.74	−1.60	0.09	−0.56	−0.07	−0.69	1.10	0.13	−0.02	−0.95	−2.10	−0.82
1974	2.30	0.81	1.17	−0.12	0.13	0.80	−0.24	−0.78	−0.39	0.55	1.18	0.67
1975	−0.33	−0.21	−1.43	0.14	−0.61	−0.84	1.63	0.39	−0.06	−1.02	−0.72	−1.18
1976	0.15	1.40	2.84	−0.66	1.55	0.93	−0.41	0.92	−1.46	1.47	−0.10	0.62
1977	0.60	0.87	−0.42	0.39	−0.25	−0.52	−1.33	−0.87	−0.16	1.60	0.03	−0.65
1978	−0.63	−1.73	0.31	−0.43	1.37	0.91	−0.95	1.09	−0.67	0.24	−0.53	−0.42
1979	−0.60	−0.45	0.93	0.15	−1.55	0.59	0.80	0.69	−0.63	0.62	0.26	0.27
1980	−0.04	0.63	1.49	1.17	−0.48	−0.49	−0.89	0.59	0.39	−1.22	−0.64	−0.53
1981	−0.70	0.76	−0.92	−1.59	0.43	−0.38	1.09	2.56	−0.26	−0.07	0.30	−1.83
1982	−1.14	−0.48	1.93	0.06	−0.47	−1.64	0.65	−0.38	−0.68	1.30	0.44	−0.67
1983	−0.34	−0.47	0.65	−0.27	0.06	2.12	0.12	−0.46	0.33	0.22	−2.36	−1.05
1984	0.68	0.51	0.01	0.60	1.51	0.40	1.10	1.29	0.14	1.44	0.49	1.19
1985	−0.28	1.24	0.40	−0.30	0.54	0.02	0.96	−0.64	0.47	0.12	−0.85	−0.22
1986	0.41	−1.24	1.42	−0.89	0.90	0.77	0.25	0.86	−1.42	1.52	−0.76	1.42
1987	1.07	−1.25	0.02	1.87	0.57	−0.93	−0.63	−0.47	1.44	0.08	0.43	−1.11
1988	−0.87	1.06	−0.01	−1.85	0.87	1.12	−0.54	1.51	−0.42	−0.92	−1.10	−0.55
1989	0.21	−0.95	0.19	1.05	0.62	0.69	1.31	−0.32	0.94	0.07	0.45	−0.94
1990	2.09	1.25	−0.30	1.40	−2.74	0.96	1.40	−0.54	2.50	−0.39	−0.85	0.37
1991	0.72	0.49	1.59	−0.72	0.23	0.59	−0.09	1.70	−0.94	−1.19	−0.49	0.95
1992	−0.31	−0.51	0.05	1.15	1.14	−0.51	−0.28	0.57	1.70	−0.80	1.00	−0.78
1993	0.15	−1.47	−0.11	−0.43	−2.55	0.03	−1.73	1.01	0.70	−1.28	2.65	−0.36
1994	−1.11	0.43	1.38	0.51	0.10	2.14	1.52	−0.04	0.71	−1.79	0.15	1.11
1995	−1.02	−0.85	−0.17	−0.58	0.12	0.07	−1.43	−0.23	−0.23	−1.80	−1.16	−1.48
1996	0.63	−0.14	0.88	0.32	−0.71	1.81	1.01	0.36	1.42	−0.79	−0.39	−0.91
1997	−0.44	0.10	0.83	−1.40	0.36	−1.55	−0.24	1.06	−0.15	−1.05	0.05	0.49
1998	−0.43	−0.86	0.16	0.57	−0.12	−0.82	0.45	1.46	−1.81	0.72	1.47	−0.13
1999	1.18	0.12	1.16	−0.74	0.53	0.60	−0.96	−0.99	0.90	−0.61	0.70	−0.43
2000	1.21	0.54	−0.86	−1.05	0.53	−0.79	0.52	0.12	0.60	2.04	0.97	−0.13
2001	1.11	0.18	−0.66	−0.41	−0.67	0.18	−0.85	0.72	0.90	0.22	−0.81	0.32
2002	0.03	−1.24	−1.11	0.24	−0.90	0.70	0.49	−0.29	−1.05	0.36	0.44	1.60
2003	−1.36	−0.06	−0.93	−0.78	0.83	0.05	0.66	1.19	−0.07	−0.36	1.63	−1.75
2004	−1.07	−0.48	1.16	0.46	0.03	−0.68	2.35	−0.66	0.39	−0.21	−1.55	1.27
2005	0.94	0.52	−0.79	−0.66	−0.44	−0.52	0.07	−0.12	−2.01	−1.15	0.11	1.69
2006	3.21	−1.14	−1.48	3.91	−1.11	0.95	0.04	0.00	−1.97	−1.32	0.44	0.69
2007	−0.69	−0.56	0.93	−0.49	−0.66	−1.15	−1.70	−1.86	−1.22	−0.68	−0.56	−0.27
2008	−0.01	−0.32	−0.81	−0.89	−0.93	−1.07	−0.43	−0.72	0.38	0.50	−0.73	0.17
2009	0.43	0.04	−0.04	−1.37	2.22	−1.38	−1.90	−0.32	−0.22	−1.26	1.68	0.15
2010	0.41	0.44	−0.25	1.09	−0.01	−2.04	0.33	−1.92	−0.64	−0.56	−0.76	−0.95
2011	0.06	1.55	−0.77	1.68	−0.26	−1.58	−1.08	−1.19	2.34	−0.70	0.27	0.93
2012	2.20	0.71	0.94	−0.99	−1.64	−0.72	−0.99	−0.54	1.38	0.07	0.22	0.63
2013	0.09	−0.69	−1.61	−0.14	0.09	1.51	0.42	0.99	1.13	−1.52	−0.68	0.27
2014	1.14	1.06	−0.51	−1.61	−0.58	−0.50	−0.18	−1.64	0.02	0.33	−999.90	−999.90

La correlazione tra dipolo ed anomalie detrendizzate nel periodo 1948-2013:

g20141113_1043_27980_1.png

Il dipolo positivo è ovviamente correlato ad anomalie negative nell'interno dell'eurasia e positive nell'artico europeo , non c'è correlazione sull'europa e non difficile capire il perchè, guardando i valori sopra si trovano mesi freddi sia con AD+ (feb 1956, feb 1929) che con AD- (gen-feb 1963) e lo stesso per mesi miti.

Grandi interventi come sempre mi spiace di non avere proprio gli strumenti per poter approfondire il discorso..!!

Riguardo l'ultimo paragrafo in cui dici che non c'è correlazione con l'Europa in quanto si trovano inverni freddi sia con AD + che con AD - ;....la domanda che mi facevo qualche post fa: non ci sarebbero correlazioni anche se inseriamo il segno della ao come discriminante?


Ps: grafici da osservare veramente con molta attenzione!! ... già ad occhio risulterebbe interessante approfondire alcuni periodi...