Tornado in Bulgaria

[Angel Dimitrov]

Hello,

Look what I've found about the tornado which occured today in Kiustendil, Bulgaria:

"Kiustendil. In the area of village Bobeshino in county Kiustendil around 6:30 UTC today 2 June 2006 raged severe storm. Showers with strong winds, uprooted trees, which blocked the mayoral building. There are fallen tiles from the roofs. The road from village Donlo Selo to village Bobeshino e blocked from fallen trees. In the area of the disasters work teams from "Civil defence" from Kiustendil and from the county to cutting and cleaning of the trees."

in Bulgarian:

"Кюстендил. В района на село Бобешино в община Кюстендил към 9.30 ч днес се е разразила гръмотевична буря. Паднал е пороен дъжд, придружен със силен вятър, съобщиха от пресцентъра на Министерството на държавната политика при бедствия и аварии.
Изкоренени са дървета, които са засегнали сградите на граничната застава и кметството. Има отнесени керемиди от покривите на частни домове. Пътят от село Долно село до село Бобешино е препречен от паднали дървета.
В района на бедствието работят екипи на “Гражданска защита” – област Кюстендил и общината за нарязване и отстраняване на дърветата."

Angel

[Gianluigi]

Hi Angel,
have you found any photo?
it would be very interesting.....

[Blizzard]

Terrific!!!

Here it is the very good forecast by ESTOFEX (in bold the most interesting part):



DISCUSSION

....Southeastern Europe....

Despite some minor uncertainties, the stage is set for a defined severe weather event over Romania!

An intense trough over central Europe will continue to dig further southwards, resulting in a broad S-SW-erly flow over SE Europe.
A well developed upper-level jet streak will round the base of this trough and should reach Bulgaria during the morning hours... This wind max. and another one ( departing towards the NE ) will place the region under a broad and intense upper-level divergence area ( coupled jet configuration ).
Broad area of pressure fall over SE Europe will help to sharpen a NW-ward retreating warm front, which should move as fast west as western Romania.
Intense upper-level divergence, retreating warm front and approaching trough axis from the SW should yield a favorable environment for early TSTM development ( Albania-Serbia and Montenegro-western Romania ).
GFS forecast 200-500 J/kg SBCAPE and this looks reasonable, given pretty steep mid-level lapse rates and a fairly correct dewpoint assumption of the model.... DLS in the order of 25-30m/s would favor a severe wind gust risk, especially, when a line of storms with embedded bowing segments can develop.

As a result of a broad area of low pressure over SE Europe and the arriving upper-level jet , models try to develop a seperate a weak low-pressure area somewhere over N-Bulgaria/SW Romania... Theta-E analysis indicate a developing waving frontal structure over Romania (tranformation back towards a cold front ) during the afternoon hours and models generate quite significant convective precipitation signals... Despite the fact that early convection initiation could hinder insolation and that global models like GFS have problems with such small-scale and weakly developed features, conditions look fine for a few organized TSTMs to evolve....
Kinematic parameters would allow all kind of severe weather ( including isolated tornadoes, severe wind gusts and large hail )!

Area along the western coastal areas of the Black Sea were also included into a level-1 area... Despite the fact that pretty warm mid-levels and a strong cap should suppress convection development, intense diabatic heating could locally overcome cap ....Each developing storm should become supercellular pretty fast with an attendant threat for large hail and severe wind gusts!

Intrusion of a drier mid-level airmass should suppress TSTM development over Bulgaria and westwards during the late afternoon hours.

[cherokee]

confermo da Baia Mare in Romania
che sono in atto violenti temporali da ormai piu di 10 ore .