stima su ecmwf 00
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Che ne pensate degli ultimi aggiornamenti?
Bassi gpt e minimo profondo..
Sono sull'Appennino questo fine settimana
anche gfs rincara
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Dai dai, ci sono ottime speranze per una bella rinfrescata!
Non capita spesso di essere dentro la linea 2 di estofex! :O
A level 2 was issued across W Italy coastline and N Italy mainly for excessive rainfall, large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued in a belt from NE Spain, through SE France, parts of BENELUX, S Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary and Slovenia mainly for excessive rainfall, large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for NW Belarus and Lithuania mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
... NW to W Italy coastline ...
Compared to the areas N and NW-ward, this region will be under both higher CAPE and stronger DLS as moisture pools along the coastlines in S to SW-ly flow and mid-tropospheric flow increases ahead of the approaching short-wave trough. Thus, the likelihood of supercells and well-organised convective systems will be higher here. Liguria may experience the first storms already early in the forecast period, but the coverage along the remaining coastline will increase in the evening to night hours as storms propagate SSE-ward along the coastline. The main threat will be excessive precipitation, but the degree of CAPE and shear overlap also point ot the risk of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. While tornado risk will be non-zero, it will be diminished by the lack of strong lower tropospheric shear.
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Secondo AROME, la pressione dovrebbe calare ancora nelle prossime ore.
Dopo una breve pausa, dovremmo avere un nuovo impulso precipitativo, sempre in risalita dal mare verso NE.
Il minimo dovrebbe poi traslare verso E a metà giornata di domenica.
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settimana che inizia e proseguirà vivibile.la +20° comunque vicina per venerdì.
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