Basilicata - Giugno/Luglio/Agosto 2020

**Fraxinus90** · 01/06/2020, 18:47

Salve a tutti

Inauguriamo questo inizio di estate meteorologica con l'apertura del 3d estivo

Oramai sono pochissimi i lucani su questo forum però voglio dare il mio contributo.
Oggi giornata fresca con pioggia in nottata 1.4 mm
Maggio chiude a 29.4 mm ( utilizzo un pluviometro manuale)

**Fraxinus90** · 04/06/2020, 07:33

Giornata di ieri con tempo buono in mattinata. Nel pomeriggio una cella temporalesca ha sfiorato il mio paese. 2 mm cumulati

In attesa del peggioramento di venerdì

**Manuel98** · 05/06/2020, 01:53

Per domani (ovvero oggi)

... cold front of the second frontal system: from N Poland to S Italy ...

Rather moist air under modest lapse rates contributes to CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. An overlap with a pronounced southerly low-level jet creates quite remarkable 0-1 km shear, reaching around 10 m/s across wide areas and even up to 15 m/s across the Pannonian Plain in Hungary and around. Vertical wind shear does not increase much across deeper layers anymore, but appears nonetheless sufficient for storm organization.
The main trough axis lags several hundred kilometers behind the cold front, hence little synoptic-scale lift support exists. However, the cold front itself, various outflow boundaries surging ahead, smaller-scale vorticity maxima and orography provide plenty of mesoscale sources of lift. Scattered thunderstorms are therefore expected mostly between noon and late evening.
Almost front-parallel storm motion will likely result in destructive interference and undercutting cold air, hence excessive rain seems to be the primary risk, especially in case of backbuilding or training activity. However, leading storms which manage to propagate towards the warmer air can organize well and pose an increasing risk of large hail, severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. While most areas are covered with a level 1, a belt across S and central Hungary and an area of S Italy are upgraded to a level 2, mostly due to steeper lapse rates and higher CAPE up to 1500 J/kg. It is difficult to give any details about the expected storm mode, but there are indications for a maximized wind risk in Hungary (possible bowing segments under strongest 0-1 km shear) and a maximized rain risk in S Italy (strong warm air advection ahead of a Saharan elevated mixed layer plus orographic lift of the southerly flow).
Towards the far south, i.e., Sicily, Malta and around, the capping will likely be too strong to be eroded by a combination of the mentioned sources of lift. The level 1 is therefore extended across Sicily, where the orography is still helpful, but not beyond it towards Malta and the open sea.

2020060606_202006042359_2_stormforecast.xml.png

**Fraxinus90** · 05/06/2020, 10:57

La perturbazione ha raggiunto il potentino con rovesci più intensi nel lagonegrese

1.JPG

**Manuel98** · 05/06/2020, 18:08

33mm sottostimati causa vento. Continua la pioggia forte/moderata con picchi di 50mm/hr. L'umidità stranamente è al 65%, evidentemente il sensore ha qualche anomalia. Strano che, appena iniziato a piovere, dal 77% è sceso sui 65