Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

[debris74]

se nn sbaglio questa è una low da 977mb:

[Ben]

eh, cmq c'è poco da scherzare. se fosse aprile o anche fine marzo con i venti messi come sono ora i modelli non mi stupirei di un 3-4 aprile 1974 bis. LLJ con punte a 80-90Kt:

già.
che low comunque!

[debris74]

già.
che low comunque!

il 12z adesso la mette a 985mb. x le 00z del 25, cmq "peccato" avere un set-up così bello ma presto nella stagione. nn vorrei facesse poi come l'anno scorso che iniziò a legnare a marzo ma poi...


ecco temperature:




e pressione:

[Andrerus]

dove ti butteresti Fabio??

in che zona?
E tu ben?

[debris74]

dove ti butteresti Fabio??

in che zona?
E tu ben?

Ciao Andre,

un target puro lo si può fare solo alla sera prima o alla mattina dello stesso giorno di caccia. per ora le zone sono quelle di cui già parla SPC con il Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook:

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
TX...OK...KS AND CNTRL NEB...

...GREAT PLAINS...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S.
FRIDAY CLOSING OFF OVER THE SCNTRL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...A VERY STRONG 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SRN PLAINS AND A MOIST AXIS WILL SET UP FROM NW TX
EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO WCNTRL KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC
DEWPOINTS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE 55 TO 58 F RANGE
ALLOWING FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST EAST OF A
WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE MOIST AXIS MAY REMAIN
CAPPED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY ACROSS WRN OK AND THE
LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF NORTHWEST TX. ONCE CONVECTION
INITIATES...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD QUICKLY OCCUR DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 60-70 KT. IN ADDITION...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AIDED BY VERY STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF AN
EJECTING 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOW CLASSIC LOADED-GUN TYPE SOUNDINGS WITH 0-3 KM SRH INCREASING TO
ABOVE 500 M2/S2 DURING THE EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KT WILL MAKE STRONG TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY
FRIDAY EVENING...SHOULD STRONG CAPPING BE OVERCOME. VERY LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.
A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS
WCNTRL KS...CNTRL OK AND NRN TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AND SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR
AS FAR EAST AS ERN OK/ECNTRL KS/NERN TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO...A
FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR IN CNTRL NEB BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN THAT TAKES PLACE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS
FRIDAY. IF MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AN
UPGRADE MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

[griffa-petrucci]

io dico che SPC x l'occasione farà uscire il nuovo livello di rischio: Armageddon Risk:


VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...PLAINS/MS VALLEY/SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
AN INCREDIBLE POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS IS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH. A 210 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AROUND MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AN IMMENSELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET 110 KT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL TRANSPORT ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
INTO OK AND KS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. APOCALYPTIC SUPECELL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG, NORTH, SOUTH, EAST AND BEHIND!!! THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON. INCREDIBLE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
MEGA-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES F5 WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
...A FAST AND FURIOUS SQUALL-LINE WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT POSSIBLE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NRN FL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE ALL DIE. TAKE CARE AND PRAY THE LORD.

[griffa-petrucci]

Mah ragazzi, se le cose rimanessero così me ne starei buono buono a dodge city KS o a Shamrock TX ad aspettare i nuovi run delle previ e delle Ruc, dato che mi sembrano i due punti più caldi. Ad ogni modo è ovvio che è troppo presto per un target..Ragazzi buttatevi anche voi.

[debris74]

ultimo bollettino SPC:

VALID 241200Z - 011200Z

A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED-OFF LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SWING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DYNAMICS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY STRONG WHICH COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE ERN PLAINS EWD TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. A
SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY 4
PERIOD AND THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW
ECHOES. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND NEAR
THE UPPER-LOW CENTER ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM LATE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN STILL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

[debris74]

che ne dica SPC, il 12z di ETA non mi sembra un gran chè. low a 986mb e il sistema troppo alto non riesce a richiamare più molta umidità. venerdì invece sembra meglio x l'energia ma c'è iol problema CAP.

[griffa-petrucci]

che ne dica SPC, il 12z di ETA non mi sembra un gran chè. low a 986mb e il sistema troppo alto non riesce a richiamare più molta umidità. venerdì invece sembra meglio x l'energia ma c'è iol problema CAP.

Perche cicus dici che Venerdì c'è troppo Cap..