MetOffice: Forecast for Winter 2008/9

[4ecast]

Winter 2008/9 forecast

Updated 25 November 2008
Forecast for Winter 2008/9


Temperature

Winter temperatures are more likely to be above 1971-2000 averages over northern Europe and parts of southern and eastern Europe. However, over northern Europe, this winter is likely to be less mild than last winter. In other regions the chances for above or below average are evenly balanced.
For the winter as a whole, UK mean temperatures are more likely to be near or above average. However, we are likely to have a cold start to the winter with temperatures below average in December.
Rainfall

Below-average precipitation is slightly favoured over parts of central Europe; elsewhere the chances of above and below average are more evenly balanced.
For the UK, precipitation is more likely to be average, or below average.


Forecast uncertainties
Seasonal forecasts indicate how slowly-varying large-scale climate influences make particular seasonal conditions more likely than others. Random, unpredictable factors ('chaos') also partly determine year-to-year variations, and these will sometimes override large-scale influences. Such uncertainties make a probabilistic format, as used here, advisable for seasonal forecasts.
Updates and reviews of the forecast
Updates to the forecast will be issued at 10 a.m. on: 22 December and 22 January 2009. A monthly appraisal of the winter will start in early January 2009.

[giorgio1940]

Winter 2008/9 forecast

Updated 25 November 2008
Forecast for Winter 2008/9


Temperature

Winter temperatures are more likely to be above 1971-2000 averages over northern Europe and parts of southern and eastern Europe. However, over northern Europe, this winter is likely to be less mild than last winter. In other regions the chances for above or below average are evenly balanced.
For the winter as a whole, UK mean temperatures are more likely to be near or above average. However, we are likely to have a cold start to the winter with temperatures below average in December.
Rainfall

Below-average precipitation is slightly favoured over parts of central Europe; elsewhere the chances of above and below average are more evenly balanced.
For the UK, precipitation is more likely to be average, or below average.


Forecast uncertainties
Seasonal forecasts indicate how slowly-varying large-scale climate influences make particular seasonal conditions more likely than others. Random, unpredictable factors ('chaos') also partly determine year-to-year variations, and these will sometimes override large-scale influences. Such uncertainties make a probabilistic format, as used here, advisable for seasonal forecasts.
Updates and reviews of the forecast
Updates to the forecast will be issued at 10 a.m. on: 22 December and 22 January 2009. A monthly appraisal of the winter will start in early January 2009.

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Un brevissimo riassuntino, in lingua locale?

[brandingo]

inverno senza anomalie significative da noi

[Dream Designer]

Dice, in sintesi: che probabilmente sarà un Inverno sopramedia ma meno rispetto agli altri due in Europa, in generale leggermente sopramedia, specie sui settori Settentrionali e Orientali del continente, altrove le possibilità di un Inverno sottomedia o sopramedia sono bilanciate

ciò nonostante, l'inizio Inverno pare molto freddo ... anche se non ho capito se si riferisce solo al Regno Unito

[brandingo]

Winter temperatures are more likely to be above 1971-2000 averages over northern Europe and parts of southern and eastern Europe. However, over northern Europe, this winter is likely to be less mild than last winter. In other regions the chances for above or below average are evenly balanced.

piu' mite su nord europa e sudest europa (grecia turchia bulgaria romania?),altrove le possibilita' di avere un inverno piu' mite o piu' freddo sono bilanciate,cioe' piu' o meno alla pari

[gregory]

Bene così!!

[meteopazzo]

Dice, in sintesi: che probabilmente sarà un Inverno sopramedia ma meno rispetto agli altri due in Europa, in generale leggermente sopramedia, specie sui settori Settentrionali e Orientali del continente, altrove le possibilità di un Inverno sottomedia o sopramedia sono bilanciate

ciò nonostante, l'inizio Inverno pare molto freddo ... anche se non ho capito se si riferisce solo al Regno Unito

mi pare un po troppo generico

[FunMBnel]

Dice in sintesi che sono in difficoltà a metterci un segno ben definito.

E che è difficile che sia peggio degli ultimi 2 inverni, ma qui non ci voleva un genio.

[giofelix]

Dice in sintesi che sono in difficoltà a metterci un segno ben definito.

E che è difficile che sia peggio degli ultimi 2 inverni, ma qui non ci voleva un genio.

il limite al peggio purtroppo non esiste...
Mi accontento di una settimana di neve, 30 cm, al suolo tra natale e l'epifania..

[giofelix]

e x noi romagnoli inizia un periodo, si, anche piovoso, ma certamente tardo autunnale, come termiche. Fino a? il 13?