Metoffice prevede un El Niño molto forte e un 2010 da record

[Geppox]

Metoffice prevede l'episodio di El Niño attualmente nelle sue fasi iniziali come molto forte, secondo probabilmente soltanto a quello del 1998 e che andrà via via a rinforzarsi nel corso dell'anno andando a influenzare direttamente le prossime stagioni, da quella invernale alle anomalie termiche da record del 2010.

Di seguito l'articolo completo per gli eventuali interessati, con tutti i dettagli (*):




New El Niño threatens world with weather woe


Forecasters say this one is brewing up to be the second-strongest on record

Monday, 3 August 2009

A new El Niño has begun. The sporadic Pacific Ocean warming, which can disrupt weather patterns across the world, is intensifying, say meteorologists.
So, over the next few months, there may be increased drought in Africa, India and Australia, heavier rainfall in South America and increased extremes in Britain, of warm and cold. It may make 2010 one of the hottest years on record.
The cyclical phenomenon, which happens every two to seven years, is a major determinant of global weather systems. The 1997-98 El Niño combined with global warming to push 1998 into being the world's hottest year, and caused major droughts and catastrophic forest fires in South-east Asia which sent a pall of smoke right across the region.


At present, forecasters do not expect this El Niño to equal that of 1998, but it may be the second-strongest, and concerned groups, from international insurance companies to commodity traders, to aid agencies such as Oxfam, have begun to follow its progress anxiously. Its potential for economic and social impact is considerable.
Professor Chris Folland, of the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, said: "We are likely to see more global warming than we have seen in the past few years, which have been rather cool. In fact, we are already seeing it."
El Niño is a periodic warming of the normally cold waters of the eastern tropical Pacific, the ocean region westwards out from South America along the line of the equator. Since the Pacific is a heat reservoir which drives wind patterns around the world, the change in its temperature alters global weather. An El Niño is defined by ocean surface temperatures rising by more than 0.5C above the average.
This El Niño is well beyond that, says the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Weather Service. "Sea surface temperatures remain +0.5 to +1.5 above average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean," the centre reported last week. "Observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through the northern hemisphere winter of 2009-10."
The last El Niño was in 2006-07 and, at its peak, sea surface temperatures averaged about 0.9 degrees above normal. But this is a stage which has already been reached by this one.
The last El Niño, comparatively weak though it was, is thought to have been partly responsible for the extraordinarily warm weather in Britain between the summer of 2006 and the spring of 2007: July 2006 was Britain's hottest month, autumn 2006 (September, October and November) was the warmest autumn, winter 2006-07 (December, January and February) was the second warmest in Britain, and April 2007 was our warmest April.
People have forgotten this because there then began our recent cooler and wetter period, with Britain's two "washout summers" of 2007 and 2008, and they may, in turn, have been associated with the counter-phenomenon of La Niña, a cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific waters, which followed. The start of the present El Niño was one reason the Met Office predicted a "barbecue summer" for 2009.








(*)The Indipendent, Monday, 3 August 2009

[MeteoSGR]

molto coraggiosi

[Stefano De C.]

Mah, vedremo

[naturalist]

Metoffice prevede l'episodio di El Niño attualmente nelle sue fasi iniziali come molto forte, secondo probabilmente soltanto a quello del 1998 e che andrà via via a rinforzarsi nel corso dell'anno andando a influenzare direttamente le prossime stagioni, da quella invernale alle anomalie termiche da record del 2010.

Di seguito l'articolo completo per gli eventuali interessati, con tutti i dettagli (*):




New El Niño threatens world with weather woe


Forecasters say this one is brewing up to be the second-strongest on record

Monday, 3 August 2009

A new El Niño has begun. The sporadic Pacific Ocean warming, which can disrupt weather patterns across the world, is intensifying, say meteorologists.
So, over the next few months, there may be increased drought in Africa, India and Australia, heavier rainfall in South America and increased extremes in Britain, of warm and cold. It may make 2010 one of the hottest years on record.
The cyclical phenomenon, which happens every two to seven years, is a major determinant of global weather systems. The 1997-98 El Niño combined with global warming to push 1998 into being the world's hottest year, and caused major droughts and catastrophic forest fires in South-east Asia which sent a pall of smoke right across the region.


At present, forecasters do not expect this El Niño to equal that of 1998, but it may be the second-strongest, and concerned groups, from international insurance companies to commodity traders, to aid agencies such as Oxfam, have begun to follow its progress anxiously. Its potential for economic and social impact is considerable.
Professor Chris Folland, of the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, said: "We are likely to see more global warming than we have seen in the past few years, which have been rather cool. In fact, we are already seeing it."
El Niño is a periodic warming of the normally cold waters of the eastern tropical Pacific, the ocean region westwards out from South America along the line of the equator. Since the Pacific is a heat reservoir which drives wind patterns around the world, the change in its temperature alters global weather. An El Niño is defined by ocean surface temperatures rising by more than 0.5C above the average.
This El Niño is well beyond that, says the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Weather Service. "Sea surface temperatures remain +0.5 to +1.5 above average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean," the centre reported last week. "Observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through the northern hemisphere winter of 2009-10."
The last El Niño was in 2006-07 and, at its peak, sea surface temperatures averaged about 0.9 degrees above normal. But this is a stage which has already been reached by this one.
The last El Niño, comparatively weak though it was, is thought to have been partly responsible for the extraordinarily warm weather in Britain between the summer of 2006 and the spring of 2007: July 2006 was Britain's hottest month, autumn 2006 (September, October and November) was the warmest autumn, winter 2006-07 (December, January and February) was the second warmest in Britain, and April 2007 was our warmest April.
People have forgotten this because there then began our recent cooler and wetter period, with Britain's two "washout summers" of 2007 and 2008, and they may, in turn, have been associated with the counter-phenomenon of La Niña, a cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific waters, which followed. The start of the present El Niño was one reason the Met Office predicted a "barbecue summer" for 2009.








(*)The Indipendent, Monday, 3 August 2009

Non voglio negare l'esistenza del Nino, ma l'ultima frase è però per me abbastanza significativa: probabilmente anche il Met office, per la Gran Bretagna, ha dovuto rivedere le previsioni in quanto l'atmosfera sembra ancora reagire allo sviluppo del Nino. Questo potrebbe comportare il rischio di attribuire un peso non congruo a tale indice a tal punto che la previsione poi risulti errata. Non è detto che l'episodio di Nino di pari intensità, in anni diversi determini stesse configurazioni, stesse anomalie in ambito globale. Nella natura tutto può accadere, però una partenza così forte ed anticipata del Nino, potrebbe esserne seguita anche da un rapido decadimento dell'episodio. Comunque poi in autunno si vedrà a quale episodio di Nino saremo di fronte.

[Sandro58]

Non credo proprio !!!!

[atlantic]

a volte mi chiedo se valga la pena dedicare qualche minuto a questo tipo di previsioni
vabbè, una letta giela diamo, un pò come guardo gfs oltre le 300 ore, così per sport

[gennaio]

Speriamo che le loro previsioni siano esatte come quelle che hanno fatto per l'estate in Inghilterra........

[steph]

Speriamo che le loro previsioni siano esatte come quelle che hanno fatto per l'estate in Inghilterra........

Momento: qui c'è una parziale verifica:

Met Office: Our summer forecast

[rafdimonte]

dico la mia: ovviamente gli episodi di nino strong non hanno mai fatto bene ai nostri inverni...ma per il prox inverno ci saranno due varianti:
1) La presenza di una qbo negativa che raggiungerà il suo culmine proprio nei mesi invernali.
2) La presenza di un minimo solare ormai eccezionale, e quest ultimo punto non si è MAI presentato in accoppiata con un nino strong...perciò saranno mesi molto interessanti per studiosi e scienziati per vedere se sul SERIO le temnperature globali sono influenzate dall'attività solare..
Però...vi è un però....per l'estate 2010 probabulmente vi sarà una malefica combinazione di nino e qbo negativa, uguale ad un famoso anno...e in quel caso li allora si che non scamperemo....
Come dire la stessa qbo che FORSE ci salverà l'inverno dalle grinfie del nino firmerà la nostra condanna la prossima estate....
Allora...preferite un inverno mite o un estate 2003?
Fra i due mali quale dei due scegliete?
Ai posteri l'ardua sentenza....

[FunMBnel]

Abbiamo già stabilito che la prossima estate sarà come il 2003?
Basta saperlo!