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The
NAO exhibits considerable inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability, and prolonged periods (several months) of both positive and negative phases of the pattern are common. The wintertime
NAO also exhibits significant multi-decade variability (Hurrell 1995, Chelliah and Bell 2005). For example, the negative phase of the
NAO dominated the circulation from the mid-1950's through the 1978/79 winter. During this approximately 24-year interval, there were four prominent periods of at least three years each in which the negative phase was dominant and the positive phase was notably absent. In fact, during the entire period the positive phase was observed in the seasonal mean only three times, and it never appeared in two consecutive years.
An abrupt transition to recurring positive phases of the
NAO then occurred during the 1979/80 winter, with the atmosphere remaining locked into this mode through the 1994/95 winter season. During this 15-year interval, a substantial negative phase of the pattern appeared only twice, in the winters of 1984/85 and 1985/ 86. However, November 1995 - February 1996 (NDJF 95/96) was characterized by a return to the strong negative phase of the
NAO. Halpert and Bell (1997; their section 3.3) recently documented the conditions accompanying this transition to the negative phase of the
NAO.
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