15/04/2006 - Occhi puntati su Oklahoma e Kansas

**Aragorth** · 15/04/2006, 15:44

what do you guys think of today's crap...looks so much favorable for something nice...but after reading Jeff's Snyder post on ST...I am worried

I don't know what's going on but surface obs showing Td's 55-60F in eastern KS, shear profiles are sweet in ne KS and further to ne...but hell Td's are only at 35-40F there? what the...??

Checking the Topeka, KS 12z sounding...

Any thoughts?

**griffa-petrucci** · 15/04/2006, 16:37

Originariamente Scritto da Aragorth

what do you guys think of today's crap...looks so much favorable for something nice...but after reading Jeff's Snyder post on ST...I am worried

I don't know what's going on but surface obs showing Td's 55-60F in eastern KS, shear profiles are sweet in ne KS and further to ne...but hell Td's are only at 35-40F there? what the...??

Checking the Topeka, KS 12z sounding...

Any thoughts?

What can I say Marko...

Eta 12Z run is ok also for the moisture return from the gulf, even though Ruc 12Z run doesn't give sufficient moisture in Nebraska. With Ruc we have about 55-57 of Td that is not good...

**Aragorth** · 15/04/2006, 18:43

Originariamente Scritto da griffa-petrucci

What can I say Marko...

Eta 12Z run is ok also for the moisture return from the gulf, even though Ruc 12Z run doesn't give sufficient moisture in Nebraska. With Ruc we have about 55-57 of Td that is not good...

bah

pretty impressive DL shear over nne KS, but too low Tds

Tds 60-65F are just in the central OK...but other things are not that good, actually they suck

Virtually I am still waitin in Topeka, KS for the next couple of hours and then moving towards northeast into extreme nw MO.

PS: what this means "storms will be highly elevated"...why or what cause this?

**griffa-petrucci** · 15/04/2006, 19:14

Originariamente Scritto da Aragorth

bah

pretty impressive DL shear over nne KS, but too low Tds

Tds 60-65F are just in the central OK...but other things are not that good, actually they suck

Virtually I am still waitin in Topeka, KS for the next couple of hours and then moving towards northeast into extreme nw MO.

PS: what this means "storms will be highly elevated"...why or what cause this?

If there's less moisture the base of the storms is more elevated. I think that if this is the problem(ie Eta is wrong), Nebraska will have some problem. Man, this map sucks..I think North East Kansas will have mayor probability to get something severe. I like Manhattan like a virtual target.

**Aragorth** · 15/04/2006, 20:18

Agreed, extreme ne KS should get something, I also see extreme se NE and extreme nw MO...like in that map I posted few hours ago.

Finally Td's exceeding 60F in eastern KS, we should see smthg firing up soonm satelite is nice too.

SPC came up eith this MD...

Man, did you see that strong CAP on Topeka 18z sounding?!

god it will need a big kick in the ass to break that, insane!

**Aragorth** · 15/04/2006, 21:21

Andrea,
did you noticed that line (maybe line of dust?) in nw KS, I marked it with red arrows? Could that be a cold front, huh?

Also a dryline is pretty much clearly visible with some rising Cu clouds on it. Probably this could be a start for action today, those elevated storms in ene KS aren't interesting, let them fly away

**griffa-petrucci** · 15/04/2006, 23:44

Originariamente Scritto da Aragorth

Andrea,
did you noticed that line (maybe line of dust?) in nw KS, I marked it with red arrows? Could that be a cold front, huh?

Also a dryline is pretty much clearly visible with some rising Cu clouds on it. Probably this could be a start for action today, those elevated storms in ene KS aren't interesting, let them fly away

More than a cold front I'd say that's the dry line with strong wind at the ground.