possible MDT RISK tomorrow over central KS/NE

**Aragorth** · 04/06/2006, 22:15

Hello chasers!

I dont like tomorrow's setup JUST because I am at home, otherwise I think it looks a juicy stuff for almost guaranted upgrade into MDT, for now its still SLGT on spc site. Anyways, take a look:

Preliminary target (until next model runs) is: Norton, KS

**griffa-petrucci** · 05/06/2006, 06:42

Yesterday I took a look to the maps and it seemed that there was a low pressure in southern Nebraska. Today things have changed a little with less low level back winds even though it remains a good line of convergence in Nebraska. Thermodynamic parameters remains so good with more than 3000 of Cape spread in a huge zone.
So far there's only a thing that I don't like: the disposition of storm motion vectors and 0-6km shear vectors that appear to be more favorable for linear convection.

**Aragorth** · 05/06/2006, 08:31

Spc issued MDT risk as expected, just as you mentioned conditions moved a bit to the east:

Andrea,
take a look at this FCST sounding for TOP...mmm wish I was there

I like the area right next to the borderline north of Concordia, KS. Nice backed winds, MLCAPE exceeding 3000, good DLS, but not likeable storm motion vectors. CF looks impressive on 0-30mb Tds map, juicy! Indeed it does look like its gonna be mostly linear convection, I imagine a big linear MCS later at the evening. But hey, its 2006...what can you expect?! We should be happy with little things

Anyways we will monitor this event, finally a MDT risk after how many days...20?? Unbelivable!!

PS: photos are preparing, gimme 24h more please and I will share them all

cheers!

**griffa-petrucci** · 05/06/2006, 19:15

Today it could be a cool starting point Grand Islands: I guess there's a fine chasers convergence at the truck stop

However synoptic situation seems quite good..Let's see how does it evolve

**Aragorth** · 05/06/2006, 21:38

hehe this is funny how quick SPC changes their MDT area, pretty tuff situation with NW flow isnt it?

anyways storm initiation already on going in west central NE along cold front...our positions near the NE/KS border looks ok

**griffa-petrucci** · 05/06/2006, 21:44

Marko, it seems to me very strange that there's an isolated supercell in SD and SPD didn't issue no thunderstorm warning(radial velocity shows a nice rotation)