Aggiornate le ROEDER

[bufera87]

[andrea_bo]

bufera c'è scritto 2004.........

[bufera87]

si andrea... :-) ma il mio intento era di aprire una discussione centrata sulla previsione di roeder in riferimento a quanto effettivamente avvenuto

infatti "attendendo il nuovo aggiornamento"

[bufera87]

uppete... ecco l'aggiornamento.
per chi ci crede è un brutto colpo

[Blizzard]

Esattamente opposte a quelle precedenti.....

Ecco il commento del professore:

"After the "witterung" and the events in the last days of December it has become clear that the January temperature deviations in Northern Germany will have a range between 4 and 7 K above the normal temperature.
The problem is, what will happen then. The stratospheric circulation now will intensify rapidly after the warming in the last days of December. A further wave energy exchange with the stratosphere will therefore happen in the 2nd half of January. As it is not sure that then the stratosperic circulation may break down to a farer extend then before, there will remain a lot of uncertainty. The stratospheric polar vortex may remain stable and very strong because of the increased cooling there due to the higher content of greenhouse gases.
On the other hand there can be observed a rapid decrease of the ENSO warm event. ( s. floods over Sumatra after a drought in November). The additional warming effect to the troposphere will diminish and the Pacific low pressure activity will spread westward. Under the present conditions of the changing climate the number of comparable cases is reduced. So the prognoses are supported only by a few examples. "

[bugimeteo]

Jan Feb Mar Apr
4.7 2.2 1.0 1.6

[Pisky]

Jan Feb Mar Apr
4.7 2.2 1.0 1.6

Scusa Bugi, a cosa rimanda questa serie di numeri?Grazie.

[bugimeteo]

Scusa Bugi, a cosa rimanda questa serie di numeri?Grazie.

Anomalie delle tempreature a Berlino previste per i mesi presi in considerazione

[Gravin]

Scusa Bugi, a cosa rimanda questa serie di numeri?Grazie.

Penso siano i gradi di surplus rispetto alla mediA.
Penso.

[Casentino]

Esattamente opposte a quelle precedenti.....

Ecco il commento del professore:

"After the "witterung" and the events in the last days of December it has become clear that the January temperature deviations in Northern Germany will have a range between 4 and 7 K above the normal temperature.
The problem is, what will happen then. The stratospheric circulation now will intensify rapidly after the warming in the last days of December. A further wave energy exchange with the stratosphere will therefore happen in the 2nd half of January. As it is not sure that then the stratosperic circulation may break down to a farer extend then before, there will remain a lot of uncertainty. The stratospheric polar vortex may remain stable and very strong because of the increased cooling there due to the higher content of greenhouse gases.
On the other hand there can be observed a rapid decrease of the ENSO warm event. ( s. floods over Sumatra after a drought in November). The additional warming effect to the troposphere will diminish and the Pacific low pressure activity will spread westward. Under the present conditions of the changing climate the number of comparable cases is reduced. So the prognoses are supported only by a few examples. "

Devo dire che il Professor Roeder mi trova perfettamente d'accordo...
Il suo modo di ragionare mi ricorda molto i bravissimi ragazzi del CPS (saluto Bugi! ) che scommettevano ( e anche io ero tra questi! ), in un VPS che in Gennaio avrebbe subito un tracollo stante il minimo solare e la QBO in inversione...c'é poco da fare così non sarà (almeno a breve termine) e Gennaio probabilmente sarà anch'esso destinato a farci soffrire....
Dice poi: " a rapid decrease of the ENSO warm event"...che dire, speriamo!
la ripresa della MJO verso fase 6-7 é al momento l'unico appiglio per un cambio serio della dinamica troposferica entro i prossimi 20 giorni!