Uragano Gustav Cat. 2 landfall in Louisiana

[debris74]

EDIT:

landfall avvenuto a cat.3



EDIT:

gustav ha passato Cuba indebolendosi più del previsto. l'eyewall è collassato e l'ultima missione ha trovato 960mb e 100kt (cat.3). NHC mantiente cmq l'intensità a oltre 115kt perchè prevede un nuovo rinforzo ora che l'uragano è di nuovo over wrm water. landfall previsto poco a ovest di new orleans come un disastroso cat.4

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il potenziale termico è al massimo e lo shear debole - le prossime ore dovrebbero vedere gustav diventare un borderline cat.2-3 con la perdita di 40-50 mb. prima del landfall con cuba.

Storm GUSTAV1: Observed By Air Force #307
Storm #07 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 71KT (81.7mph 131.5km/h) In NE Quadrant At 19:02:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 63.9KT (73.5mph 118.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 29, 2008 9:11:00 PM (Fri, 29 Aug 2008 19:11:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 18° 59' N 079° 24' W (19.0°N 79.4°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2924m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 78KT (89.7MPH 144.5km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 21nm (24.15miles) From Center At Bearing 82°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 71KT (81.65mph 131.5km/h) From 157°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 27nm (31.0 miles) From Center At Bearing 73°
Minimum pressure: 980 mb (28.94in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 25 nm (28.8 mi 46.3km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[debris74]

landfall negli states sempre previsto molto, molto vicino a new orleans come Cat.3:

[debris74]

occhio che si eclissa x un potente burst convettivo a nord del centro:

[debris74]

joe bastardi alla Fox pare abbia dichiarato che potrebbe diventare cat.5 prima di cuba.




vediamo che dirà l'NHC al prx bollettino tra 30min.

[simone]

occhio che si eclissa x un potente burst convettivo a nord del centro:

ma...si è spostato l'occhio????

[debris74]

ma...si è spostato l'occhio????

no è solo oscurato dalla convezione, lo stanno spiegando su un forum americano:

Gus is throwing VERY cold (<-80) convection from the eyewall during Dmin. The clouding is IMO an artifact since Gus is under mild westerly shear, so the top levels are a little east of the bottom levels. When the heaviest convection is to the west then the top layers obscure the eye to a top-down view like from the sat. The eye is still there, just a little tilted.

[debris74]

nuovo vortex msg, 977mb. e modelli che shiftano verso il landfall verso ovest

Storm GUSTAV1: Observed By Air Force #307
Storm #07 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 71KT (81.7mph 131.5km/h) In NE Quadrant At 19:02:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 63.9KT (73.5mph 118.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SURFACE WIND VISUALLY OBSERVED RAGGED EYEWALL PRESENTATION
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 29, 2008 10:51:00 PM (Fri, 29 Aug 2008 20:51:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 19° 04' N 079° 40' W (19.1°N 79.7°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2902m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 57KT (65.55MPH 105.6km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 28nm (32.2miles) From Center At Bearing 114°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 58KT (66.7mph 107.4km/h) From 211°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 16nm (18.4 miles) From Center At Bearing 109°
Minimum pressure: 977mb (28.85in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 25 nm (28.8 mi 46.3km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[simone]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 292100
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS OCCASIONALLY REVEALED AN EYE TRYING TO
FORM...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...WITH SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
THAT IS WELL-DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE UNDERLYING WATERS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE QUITE WARM...AND TO SOME DEPTH
BENEATH THE SURFACE...SO THERE ARE NO APPARENT IMPEDIMENTS TO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE GUSTAV REACHES WESTERN CUBA. EVEN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT SHOWS A 35 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS PRIOR TO CROSSING WESTERN CUBA. PASSAGE OVER CUBA WILL NOT
LIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE STORM'S STRENGTH...AND ALL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A STRENGTHENING TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SLIGHT WEAKENING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF...AND
DESPITE THE WEAKENING IMPLIED BY THE LESSER INTENSITY OVER LAND AT
96 HOURS...GUSTAV COULD MAKE FINAL LANDFALL ALONG SOME PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

GUSTAV HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND SPED UP A LITTLE...NOW
MOVING AT ABOUT 305/10...AS IT HEADS FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PORTION OF THAT RIDGE
THAT IS INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER HIGH THAT WILL
REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN A FEW DAYS. THERE ARE IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...HOWEVER...IN HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THAT HIGH TOWARD TEXAS...AND IN HOW STRONG
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF IN A FEW DAYS. THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO
DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR GUSTAV OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS WITH
THE RIDGE EXTENSION AND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF
GUSTAV...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET...FORECAST GUSTAV TO TURN
WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. OTHERS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE EXTENSION NOR A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND FORECAST GUSTAV TO BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FARTHER EAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
LATTER SOLUTIONS AND IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS...AND REPRESENTS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DUE TO THE NOTABLE
MODEL SPREAD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS ONCE AGAIN
IMPORTANT TO RESTATE THAT IT IS SIMPLY NOT YET POSSIBLE TO
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.

in sostanza rapida intensificazione, forse fino alla cat 2 prima di cuba e poi brancolano nel buio per determinare
il punto di landfall. alcuni modelli lo vedono anche andare in ambasse nel golfo del messico...

[gabriele*80*]

E' diretto a new Orleans,LA

[debris74]

E' diretto a new Orleans,LA

l'evacuazione di NO se ho capito bene dalla tv americana, inizierà domani mattina alle 8 ora USA.


intanto interessante quello che succede a gustavo. c'è infatti una bella intrusione d'aria secca che gli provoca una ferita sul quadrante prima di SE e ora a N-NE. quello che si vede da questo IR non è infatti l'occhio ma un vuoto di convezione dovuto all'aria secca: