Uragano Gustav Cat. 2 landfall in Louisiana

[debris74]

EDIT:

landfall avvenuto a cat.3



EDIT:

gustav ha passato Cuba indebolendosi più del previsto. l'eyewall è collassato e l'ultima missione ha trovato 960mb e 100kt (cat.3). NHC mantiente cmq l'intensità a oltre 115kt perchè prevede un nuovo rinforzo ora che l'uragano è di nuovo over wrm water. landfall previsto poco a ovest di new orleans come un disastroso cat.4

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il potenziale termico è al massimo e lo shear debole - le prossime ore dovrebbero vedere gustav diventare un borderline cat.2-3 con la perdita di 40-50 mb. prima del landfall con cuba.

Storm GUSTAV1: Observed By Air Force #307
Storm #07 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 71KT (81.7mph 131.5km/h) In NE Quadrant At 19:02:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 63.9KT (73.5mph 118.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 29, 2008 9:11:00 PM (Fri, 29 Aug 2008 19:11:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 18° 59' N 079° 24' W (19.0°N 79.4°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2924m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 78KT (89.7MPH 144.5km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 21nm (24.15miles) From Center At Bearing 82°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 71KT (81.65mph 131.5km/h) From 157°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 27nm (31.0 miles) From Center At Bearing 73°
Minimum pressure: 980 mb (28.94in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 25 nm (28.8 mi 46.3km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[debris74]

landfall negli states sempre previsto molto, molto vicino a new orleans come Cat.3:

[debris74]

occhio che si eclissa x un potente burst convettivo a nord del centro:

[debris74]

joe bastardi alla Fox pare abbia dichiarato che potrebbe diventare cat.5 prima di cuba.




vediamo che dirà l'NHC al prx bollettino tra 30min.

[4ecast]

joe bastardi alla Fox pare abbia dichiarato che potrebbe diventare cat.5 prima di cuba.

beh.. non c'è andato lontano

[debris74]

beh.. non c'è andato lontano

già un mito, che razza di fisico ha???

[simone]

occhio che si eclissa x un potente burst convettivo a nord del centro:

ma...si è spostato l'occhio????

[debris74]

ma...si è spostato l'occhio????

no è solo oscurato dalla convezione, lo stanno spiegando su un forum americano:

Gus is throwing VERY cold (<-80) convection from the eyewall during Dmin. The clouding is IMO an artifact since Gus is under mild westerly shear, so the top levels are a little east of the bottom levels. When the heaviest convection is to the west then the top layers obscure the eye to a top-down view like from the sat. The eye is still there, just a little tilted.

[debris74]

nuovo vortex msg, 977mb. e modelli che shiftano verso il landfall verso ovest

Storm GUSTAV1: Observed By Air Force #307
Storm #07 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 71KT (81.7mph 131.5km/h) In NE Quadrant At 19:02:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 63.9KT (73.5mph 118.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SURFACE WIND VISUALLY OBSERVED RAGGED EYEWALL PRESENTATION
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 29, 2008 10:51:00 PM (Fri, 29 Aug 2008 20:51:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 19° 04' N 079° 40' W (19.1°N 79.7°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2902m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 57KT (65.55MPH 105.6km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 28nm (32.2miles) From Center At Bearing 114°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 58KT (66.7mph 107.4km/h) From 211°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 16nm (18.4 miles) From Center At Bearing 109°
Minimum pressure: 977mb (28.85in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 25 nm (28.8 mi 46.3km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[gabriele*80*]

E' diretto a new Orleans,LA