1998: sun, enso, el nino

[clayco]

Come promesso a Massimo Bassini apro una nuova discussione sulle interazioni clima sole.

Il polacco, dice che c' correlazione tra sole enso e el nino, in particolare nel 1998, successe altre volte ma il caldo fu mascherato da eruzioni vulcaniche, raffreddanti coincidenti.

Ve la propongo solo come spunto per una discussione, non un idea precisa sul fenomeno (preferisco leggerne che scriverne, anche per evitare figure)

http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/Ingles/Warm.html

peer review: lo so che la rivista e l'autore non sono tra i più autorevoli risparmiatemi le critiche!

The Influence of the Sun

Recent studies by several groups of oceanographers, meteorologists, and astrophysicists show excellent agreement between the fluctuations of sea-surface temperature and the activity of the Sun. During the past 50 years, tropical and subtropical parts of three oceans have been cooling and warming by about 0.1°C, exactly in step with the 11-year solar cycle. This is asto-nishing, because differences in solar brightness reach only O.1 percent, not enough to cause the observed temperature changes. It seems that the solar signal triggers a climate effect by some amplifying mechanism. During the Little Ice Age, 300 years ago, solar radiation was only 0.25 percent lower than it is now.48 Since 1750, air temperature over the Northern Hemis-phere has been changing almost exactly in the rhythm of magnetic solar cycles, but not in the rhythm of greenhouse gas changes: When the Sun was more active, the Earth’s troposphere was warmer (Figure 7).47, 49, 51
The mechanism that amplifies the solar signal is probably a phenomenon like El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), that is, thermal anomalies of the east equatorial Pacific waters: El Niño, warming, and La Niña, cooling. ENSO anomalies occur as irregular 2- to 7-year cycles, asso-ciated with large-scale changes of atmospheric pressure in the tropics, between the southeas-tern and western Pacific. ENSO influences the climate of the whole planet.52 Satellite measure-ments suggest that during the observation period of the last 20 years, El Niño of 1998 caused the strongest thermal anomaly in the Earth’s atmosphere. In April and May 1998, the deviation of the global temperature from the 1982-199l average reached +0.7°C.
During the past 20 years, El Niño has occurred several times, but in ]997-1998, it developed without simultaneous volcanic eruption. Twice earlier, El Niño was associated with large volcanic eruptions, which injected enormous amounts of dust into the stratosphere: El Chichon in 1982, and Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. These eruptions caused a cooling of the global atmosphere, which masked El Niño’s thermal effects (Figure 6). It seems that ENSO is probably the strongest factor of natural variability of the global climatic system. Negative and positive anomalies of the global temperature associated with ENSO have been observed since 1958,54 and some were even observed as far back as 1610.52

Figure 6: SATELLITE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS IN THE LOWER STRATOSPHERE
Numerous observations suggest that the ENSO phenomenon depends on the activity of Sun: Great solar explosions cause dramatic increases of the solar wind, and de-crease the intensity of cosmic radiation reaching the Earth’s atmosphere. Because cosmic rays provide condensation centers for clouds, great solar explosions probably enable the formation of El Niño, through a short-term, 2-to 3-percent decrease of the global cloud coverage.


Sempre sulle influenze delle eruzioni accennate dal polacco c'è anche questo post di Max Pagano

http://www.climatemonitor.it/?p=84