Adriatic, central Italy
As the upper trough with steep mid-level lapse rates and associated cold front reach the Adriatic region, latest model output indicates that
CAPE will quickly develop due to daytime heating as well as over the sea surface. Current thinking is that thunderstorms will develop especially along the propagating cold front, spreading southwards during the day. While most thunderstorms will be affected by weak vertical wind shear, and severe weather is not likely, thunderstorms that form over central Italy will be influenced by the upper jet streak. Well-developed multicells/bowind lines may form, capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and large hail. Mesocyclones are not ruled out, and isolated toenadoes may develop. Limiting factor will be rather weak low-level moisture and vertical wind shear.
Segnalibri