Bastardi vs MET

[Pietro Calabrese]

Davvero interessante.. come dargli torto??

Joe Bastardi European Blog
Joe Bastardi's Europe Column
POSTED: 7:33 a.m. January 6, 2010

The thoughts expressed in this column represent Joe Bastardi’s personal interpretation of the weather pattern formulated from his expert analysis of the conditions affecting the weather in Europe. This discussion is usually updated Weekly (sometimes several times during the course of the week) so please check back often!
Joe's column and graphics are © AccuWeather, Inc. Redistribution in whole or in part is prohibited.
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUEL REPORT

In the coldest since the 70s Jan 1-10 in the northern hemisphere major population centers, the rep cities after 5 days stand at -8.3. There is nothing even close to this in the last 20 years for the same period. The "duel" ends on Jan 10.

Express.co.uk - Home of the Daily and Sunday Express | UK News :: Gas supplies running out as Britain shivers Gas supplies running out? stay warm.

After reading this: It has a gigantic supercomputer, 1,500 staff and a £170m-a-year budget. So why does the Met Office get it so wrong? | Mail Online

I am thankful that the super-computers thought this a mild winter. What would have happened if it actually saw it would be cold.

By the way folks, the only value of these powerful computers is that they can arrive at the wrong answer as fast as they arrive at the right one. ciao for now ****

TUESDAY EVENING.

WHAT IS LEFT FOR ME TO SAY?

Folks, for the last 3 weeks I have been posting quite a bit on this cold that was coming. Now that it is obvious, the best I can do is simply report to you on the worldwide test.

What else am I supposed to say. There is nothing else since I AM A FORECASTER, NOT A NOWCASTER. Anyone can come in tell you its snowing and cold, once its snowing and cold.

But hopefully this winter will wake people up to the EXTREME positon that has been taken by climate scientists on the global warming issue. For I must point out to you that the forecasts for cold winters came from people that A) are predominately private forecasters and b) have been at this competitive situation so long, that they are well aware of the practical aspects of the climate. I am not talking about ivory tower dictating from above, but instead the ditch diggers that do this every day of their life out of love of subject. The goal is not to "save the planet" but to nail the forecast.

So the very people that did not see this, now are issuing all sorts of alerts and warnings, alerts and warnings judging by their ideas before hand, they couldnt have expected for the winter.

I dont ask these people to quit their jobs, nor should they be chastised for their forecast. What they should reign in is the elitist attitude that they KNOW the future, be it 1 day, week month, year, decade, etc. And quit screaming that the hottest year on record is on the way when the warm winter is buried in a Scottish snowbank.

Winters like this will become more common the next few decades. After we get through with ocean cycles, pacific and atlantic that are colder and some of the ideas with solar cycles, we will be able to see that the earths temp is relative to when we started using the sattellite. My forecast is that it will return to at least where it was, and perhaps event further..back to where we were in the 1800s. But the cooling is just as likely as the screaming and yelling about warming.

So what is the value of seeing this winter. Nothing if you dont use what is happening as a reason to question dictates on the future. I am not asking you to believe me, but let the cold of the winter be a reminder that you have a life, a mind, a future, and the least you should do is search for the answer by looking at all the ideas, not simply accept a force fed a solution that may not be needed.

There is not much else I can say about the current pattern. It is for the nowcasters. I will look for things others arent seeing, I will keep reporting the situation as far as the global challenge, as I want to see how good that idea was based on real data.

ciao for now ****

Tuesday Duel Report

After four days, the test cities for how cold this outbreak is in the major industrial areas of the Northern Hemisphere stand at -8!

MONDAY DUEL REPORT.

After three days, the test cities for the worldwide duel have a cumulative total of 7.4 BELOW normal.

Ciao for now. ***

EXTREME COLD TAKING COLD FROM SPAIN TO THE UKRAINE AND NORTH. EURO SNOWCOVER EXPANDS ANEW.

After two days of the worldwide Jan. 1-10 temp challenges, the selected cities in the Far East, North America and Europe combined stand at -6! The core of the cold is just starting its attack. This forecast was issued back at Christmas and it's only now that the media picked up on my ideas.

The threat of crippling snow looks to be less for England as the storm track is too far southeast. However, there will be plenty of snow in this part of Europe the next 7-10 days and we can all argue with each other on which was worse, the cold or snow. I am starting here because I appear I was overdone yesterday on the late week snow threat. It is going to snow, but not as much a I thought in over such a wide area. There will be areas that have their deepest winter snowcover in many years by the 10th.

But for the continent as a whole, this next week to 10 days will be as severe as any in the past 20 years. I hear talk of it being the worst in 100 years; I don't know about that, since I had not researched back that far. One could have snuck in without me seeing it. But the winter, as I opined earlier is going to one overall that will remind us of what Dickens would write about.

Overall, the storm is moving farther south and east and that spares England from the widespread extreme event (Again most places are going to get significant snow over the next week to 10 days, but the specific storm threat is something I believe I erred on. I am sure my detractors will come after me... which amuses me since most of them had no idea this kind of winter was on the way in the first place.) However farther southeast, it means the snowcover spreads back south again and it may even snow a second time on the Riviera... isn't that Nice?

Overall, for the continent, it's the second surge, and worse than the first, of weather that leads to more hardship than the general European public was lead to believe would happen from the non private sources.

Stay warm.

Ciao for now. ****

[Articorusso]

back to where we were in the 1800s....
magari! forza joe

[quebec]

peccato che non mi sembra citare l'italia

[Marco.Iannucci]

ragazzi mi traducete il succo? sono un po' stanco per leggere in inglese

[Pietro Calabrese]

back to where we were in the 1800s....
magari! forza joe

Questo è uno degli aspetti interessanti ma anche che gli inverni nei prossimi decenni saranno simili a quello in corso. Poi vi è la "polemica" con il Met Office la quale aveva preannunciato un inverno molto mite in Inghilterra e Europa. Si chiede quindi a cosa serva avere un supercomputer con i modelli attuali? Risposta: a formulare prima di altri una previsione completamente sbagliata!

[Porano444]

peraltro il meteoffice ha rettificato le previsioni per gennaio-febbraio verso il freddo.....

[Conte]

questo è uno degli aspetti interessanti ma anche che gli inverni nei prossimi decenni saranno simili a quello in corso. Poi vi è la "polemica" con il met office la quale aveva preannunciato un inverno molto mite in inghilterra e europa. Si chiede quindi a cosa serva avere un supercomputer con i modelli attuali? risposta: A formulare prima di altri una previsione completamente sbagliata!

[FunMBnel]

Non dice proprio così.
Dice che il valore aggiunto di tali supercomputer è che possono dare in fretta tanto una risposta sbagliata quanto una giusta.

[Pietro Calabrese]

Non dice proprio così.
Dice che il valore aggiunto di tali supercomputer è che possono dare in fretta tanto una risposta sbagliata quanto una giusta.

Ma visto che l'elenco delle "contestazioni" al Met è piuttosto lunga, direi che il senso è più che chiaro.

[Il_Priaforà]

Non dice proprio così.
Dice che il valore aggiunto di tali supercomputer è che possono dare in fretta tanto una risposta sbagliata quanto una giusta.

Ci ha pienamente azzeccato anche questa volta

ben sotto il parallelo di Messina