perhaps new location.....new MD


Mesoscale Discussion 391< Previous MD Next MD > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CST SAT APR 01 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012021Z - 012145Z WE ARE MONITORING THE DRYLINE SOUTH OF LBB FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED NEXT HOUR OR SO. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE E OF DRYLINE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. MODIFIED 18Z MIDLAND SOUNDING YIELDS STRONG INSTABILITY USING LOWER 60S DEWPOINT WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STRONG FARTHER E AS SEEN ON OUN AND FWD SOUNDINGS...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES WITHIN CAPPING LAYER AND REDUCE CIN. GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING...AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE...AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY. EXISTING SHEAR PROFILES AT 20Z ALREADY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THUS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PARTS OF DISCUSSION AREA. ..JEWELL.. 04/01/2006