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Mesoscale Discussion 400< Previous MD Next MD > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021441Z - 021645Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY BY 18-20Z...IF NOT BEFORE. COLD CORE OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION IS SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...JUST TO THE WEST/SOUTH WEST OF SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING DRY LINE. SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH NORTHWEST OF MANHATTAN KS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE ALONG EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT ...TOWARD THE ST. JOSEPH MO AREA THROUGH 18Z. INSOLATION IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST/ WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER... BUT ENVIRONMENT ON NOSE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WRAPPING INTO CYCLONE IS ALREADY POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE. AS STRONGER FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR THROUGH MID DAY... INCREASING/INTENSIFYING TRENDS TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE. LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. BUT...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES INTO THE ST. JOSEPH/KANSAS CITY MO AREAS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE AS ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED IN STRONGLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SQUALL LINE MAY BEGIN TO EVOLVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 04/02/2006