MDT RISK across NE/KS/IA/MO 15 Aprile

**Aragorth** · 14/04/2006, 08:54

We're back in the game, guys

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND WRN IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SD / NEB EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MO VALLEY OR MIDWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER NWRN KS OR SWRN NEB...THEN DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS BELOW.

MEANWHILE...ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MO VALLEY...WITH MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING MORE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER E...ERN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLEATLANTIC STATES IN WAKE OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. DRY LINE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHARP THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAPID AFTERNOON MIXING/ADVECTION OF THIS FEATURE INTO NERN KS OR PERHAPS SERN NEB.

...SD/NEB EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...

CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN AND INTER-MODEL VARIANCE EXISTS WITH REGARD TO TRACK OF SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SLOW THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE WITH THIS LOW FORECAST NEAR LBF BY 16/00Z. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES /AT LEAST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS/ WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR YKN BY 16/00Z. LATEST SOLUTIONS OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND SREF MEAN INDICATE AN INTERMEDIATE LOW POSITION...WHICH HAS GENERALLY BEEN ACCEPTED FOR THIS FORECAST.

NWD/NWWD ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF DRY LINE OVER THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY. INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM NRN NEB/SD SEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF IA AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE ALONG/N OF FRONTAL ZONE ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT AND SWD ALONG ARCING DRY LINE FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO/SWRN IA. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUGGESTING THE LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ANY MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS CROSS RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL CO-EXIST. UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONGOING STORMS INTO A MCS OR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SPREADING NEWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY.
...LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA AND ERN NC...
A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE S OFSURFACE FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH...AND THAT WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND ERN CANADA UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO ANY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ALONG FRONTAL ZONE.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN STORM LOCATION AND COVERAGE. THEREFORE...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INCLUDED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 04/14/2006

Cheers!

Thunderstorm Team · 14/04/2006, 09:10

Yes not bad again.

Moreover this night there have been a minioutbreak of tornadoes in iowa with deads and injuries. Ideal chasing 'cause of the little portion of territory interested.

Anyway Marko, there's another thread of Cumulo that speaks about saturday, written yesterday, now in the second page.

**Ben** · 14/04/2006, 19:20

uno slight che ha lasciato il segno, ieri.
2 morti e 22 feriti hanno fatto ben pensare ad incrementare il livello di rischio per oggi.

**debris74** · 14/04/2006, 20:13

impressionante... e nn me n'ero manco accorto

**Ben** · 15/04/2006, 03:20

Indianapolis: che cellone!

**Ben** · 15/04/2006, 03:23

un meso della miseria ha sfiorato la cittÃ*!

**debris74** · 15/04/2006, 08:57

in CA:

EYEWITNESSES DESCRIBED DEBRIS CLOUD ABOUT 200 FEET WIDE IN LAUDING WAY. BROKEN ROOF TILES...SMALL TREES SNAPPED IN HALF...WATER SUCKED OUT FROM SWIMMING POOL.

**Aragorth** · 15/04/2006, 10:57

Originariamente Scritto da debris74

in CA:

EYEWITNESSES DESCRIBED DEBRIS CLOUD ABOUT 200 FEET WIDE IN LAUDING WAY. BROKEN ROOF TILES...SMALL TREES SNAPPED IN HALF...WATER SUCKED OUT FROM SWIMMING POOL.

OMG hahahaha but that is true

I though its one of your jokes again...omg can't believe it they wrote "water sucked out from a pool"

Wow the MDT RISK for today is over the bigger area than was said yeasterday...lucky bastards, this is gonna be cute.

Oh I forgot to mention yesterday...

chase target: Topeka, Kansas