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  1. #1
    Vento forte L'avatar di debris74
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    ah, un consiglio x tutti. se postate delle carte, fatelo come faccio io in allegato. perchè poi dopo 6 ore si aggiornano e chi viene magari a leggere il 3d dopo quelle 6 ore, trovandosi carte diverse, non capisce più nulla del senso della discussione.


  2. #2
    Burrasca L'avatar di Ben
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    Citazione Originariamente Scritto da debris74 Visualizza Messaggio


    ah, un consiglio x tutti. se postate delle carte, fatelo come faccio io in allegato. perchè poi dopo 6 ore si aggiornano e chi viene magari a leggere il 3d dopo quelle 6 ore, trovandosi carte diverse, non capisce più nulla del senso della discussione.




    And if the cloud bursts Thunder in your ear, You shout and no one seems to hear
    ----------------------------
    always looking at the sky

  3. #3
    TT-chaser L'avatar di Andrerus
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    Io mi butto in TX per ora e attendo..
    Storm chaser for Thunderstorm Team
    UG 69

  4. #4
    Vento forte L'avatar di debris74
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    le ETA 12z sono migliorate e infatti SPC mette subito fuori il primo moderate risk della stagione:

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX THROUGH THE EXTREME
    ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND A PORTION OF SWRN KS...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
    CNTRL PLAINS...

    ...SYNOPSIS...

    UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE EAST
    INTO THE SWRN U.S. FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LEAD
    SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NWRN MEXICO WILL EJECT
    NE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY
    IMPULSE COULD EJECT NE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
    UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
    DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
    APPROACHES. THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS WRN KS
    THROUGH WRN TX AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
    ADVANCE EAST AND MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE FRIDAY NIGHT.


    ...CNTRL THROUGH SRN PLAINS...

    MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL ADVECT
    NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN
    RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
    WILL ADVECT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND OVERTAKE
    THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TX. NARROW AXIS
    OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
    POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST E OF DRYLINE. BUT...INSTABILITY
    FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL KS THROUGH CNTRL OK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
    LIMITED DURING THE DAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
    ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

    VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
    SUPERCELLS AS THE MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EAST AND OVERLAPS THE
    STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE LOW
    LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST IN WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
    INITIATION POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE WHERE NARROW CORRIDOR OF
    BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY
    AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF
    THE DAY. HOWEVER...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AND
    POSSIBLY SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LEAD SUBTLE
    SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS
    BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN KS. STORM MODE WOULD BE
    DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
    ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN LATE AFTERNOON
    INITIATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME.

    OVERNIGHT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE MAIN UPPER
    TROUGH ADVANCES EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND AS THE PACIFIC FRONT
    MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE. MUCAPE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR
    WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
    CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH.
    STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND IN
    ADVANCE OF THE EWD ADVANCING FRONT FROM PARTS OF WRN TX THROUGH WRN
    OK INTO WRN KS AND SPREAD EAST. INITIAL MODE MAY BE
    SUPERCELLULAR...BUT WITH A GRADUAL EVOLUTION TO AN MCS CONTAINING
    MIXED MODES INCLUDING LINES AND SUPERCELLS. THROUGH SOME THREAT FOR
    ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION
    TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH GREATEST SEVERE COVERAGE
    EXPECTED IN MODERATE RISK AREA.
    Immagini Allegate Immagini Allegate

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