Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

[debris74]

You sure it will erode the cap enough early there in western OK? It looks better with LL jet now and I am still worried by those 700hPa temps by GFS, but NAM looks favorable there on the other way

I am staying up north, targeting Norton, KS for now

I'm quite confident that western OK, even TX panhandle, is the best and friendly/easy solution for a real-chase. McCook, NE down to Concordia, KS is the best virtual area for tornadoes but I think storms will be not so easy chaseable

btw, sry for my bad eng. (just woke up)

[debris74]

SPC MDT risk for my real-chase target area:

...SRN GREAT PLAINS...
FARTHER SOUTH...SEPARATION BETWEEN DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT MAY BE
GREATER FROM SWRN KS ACROSS OK/TX. SITUATION APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
DRYLINE SUPERCELL INITIATION ACROSS THESE AREAS PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
ADVANCING EAST AND MERGING WITH THE DRYLINE...MOST LIKELY AFTER
DARK. HERE TOO...ENVIRONMENT APPEARS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF MYRIAD OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO OVER
40KT ACROSS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF AT
LEAST 2000 J/KG.

OTHER THAN CONFLUENCE ZONE NEAR THE DRYLINE...LACK OF STRONGLY
DEFINED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IN THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST CELLS MAY
REMAIN DISCRETE IN NATURE AS EFFECTIVE SRH LOCALLY INCREASES TO OVER
300 M2/S2 THROUGH 00Z. SPC ANALOG SOUNDING SYSTEM REVEALS A FEW
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO MATCHES BASED ON NAM-WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NWRN TX/WRN OK VALID AROUND 00Z. PRESENT INDICATIONS BASED ON A
VARIETY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOST SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR A
STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY EVOLVE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM NWRN TX TO SWRN KS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PROXIMITY TO GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THIS AREA COULD SUPPORT A
COUPLE OF LONGER-TRACK DANGEROUS STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...SPC HAIL
MODEL BASED ON NAM-WRF INPUT SOUNDINGS GENERATES HAILSTONE DIAMETERS
OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AREA WHERE STORM
INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TENDENCY FOR STORM MERGERS AND INCREASING FORCING ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO QLCS DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK. SLOW
EWD TRANSITION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BY THIS TIME SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO DEVELOP EWD. THIS MAY RESULT
IN A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.... HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.