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Public Severe Weather Outlook
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WOUS40 KWNS 281000
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-281800-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2007
...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA.
A VERY INTENSE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING EXTREMELY
STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN BUT WILL MAKE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A DRY LINE WILL
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SOUTHWARDS INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW AN INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH AN AREA OF WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE /A CAP/ WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LIFT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT RAPID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD FORM
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
DRY LINE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS INTO THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
AND EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS QUITE RAPIDLY. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE AS
LARGE OR LARGER THAN BASEBALLS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN
SEVERAL TORNADOES. ANY TORNADOES WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AND DAMAGING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD WITH
SEVERE THREAT LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND
NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..EVANS.. 03/28/2007
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
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