Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

**debris74** · 18/02/2007, 20:32

che dite di un 3d del genere? evento x eveto potremmo raccogliere qui tutto quello che d'interessante succederà fino a maggio. questo può servire anche x avere un'idea di come va la stagione x capire come sarà questo maggio in cui tanti di noi andranno la a caccia.

io inizio, poi se l'idea nn vi garba o se trovate troppo cofusionario raccogliere tutto in un unico 3d si può cancellarlo e aprirne altri:

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE MODELS DEVELOP A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. MOVING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...DAY 6 AND DAY 7 LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS
FORECAST FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD OCCUR IN
THE PLAINS AND OZARK REGION. THIS WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH TRANSITIONS EWD ACROSS THE MS...TN AND OH
VALLEYS.

queste le previ SPC, dopo che ci sono già stati i due mini outbreak della Florida e Louisiana.

**debris74** · 18/02/2007, 20:46

ecco il 3d di riferimento x le previsioni di questo evento su stormtrack:

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=11081

eccone un passaggio:

this is one to watch. Can't ask for a lot more in February. ECMWF this morning(last night's 0z run) showing a sub-980 low in IA following a couple days of return flow off the gulf. Coupled upper jet structure over the southern states.

__________________
Mike Hollingshead

**debris74** · 18/02/2007, 20:59

**Aragorth** · 18/02/2007, 22:40

Very nice!!

Looks like this could be a great sutup for pretty early tornado outbreak

Will keep monitoring...

**Ben** · 19/02/2007, 14:28

piu che d'accordo Fabio, lo punto

**debris74** · 19/02/2007, 17:19

Originariamente Scritto da Ben

piu che d'accordo Fabio, lo punto

update da SPC:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST MON FEB 19 2007

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. AS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CNTRL U.S.
FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NWD INTO THE PLAINS AND
OZARK REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE NUMBER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NRN FL AND THE SRN PART OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S.

**Stormchaser** · 24/02/2007, 15:49

meanwhile another tornado watch has been issued..

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0030.html

**Stormchaser** · 24/02/2007, 15:59

Effective This Saturday Morning And Afternoon From 845 Am Until
400 Pm Cst.

...this Is A Particularly Dangerous Situation...

Discussion...very Intense Trough And Associated 120kt Mid Level Jet
Max Rotating Ewd Across Srn Plains. With Impressive Return Of Gulf
Moisture Underway Along With Steep Mid Level Lapse
Rates...conditions Will Rapidly Become Favorable For Development Of
Tornadic Supercells. Current Inhibition Will Quickly Weaken Newd
Across Watch Area With Mid Level Cooling And Strong Upward Motion.
Tornado Potential Expected To Increase Thru The Afternoon Across The
Watch. Given The Very Strong Shear Profiles And
Thermodynamics...development Of Strong Tornadoes Are Possible By
Afternoon.

**debris74** · 24/02/2007, 16:07

Originariamente Scritto da Stormchaser

Effective This Saturday Morning And Afternoon From 845 Am Until
400 Pm Cst.

...this Is A Particularly Dangerous Situation...

Discussion...very Intense Trough And Associated 120kt Mid Level Jet
Max Rotating Ewd Across Srn Plains. With Impressive Return Of Gulf
Moisture Underway Along With Steep Mid Level Lapse
Rates...conditions Will Rapidly Become Favorable For Development Of
Tornadic Supercells. Current Inhibition Will Quickly Weaken Newd
Across Watch Area With Mid Level Cooling And Strong Upward Motion.
Tornado Potential Expected To Increase Thru The Afternoon Across The
Watch. Given The Very Strong Shear Profiles And
Thermodynamics...development Of Strong Tornadoes Are Possible By
Afternoon.

è una PDS