Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
che dite di un 3d del genere? evento x eveto potremmo raccogliere qui tutto quello che d'interessante succederà fino a maggio. questo può servire anche x avere un'idea di come va la stagione x capire come sarà questo maggio in cui tanti di noi andranno la a caccia.
io inizio, poi se l'idea nn vi garba o se trovate troppo cofusionario raccogliere tutto in un unico 3d si può cancellarlo e aprirne altri:
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE MODELS DEVELOP A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. MOVING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...DAY 6 AND DAY 7 LOOK TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS
FORECAST FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD OCCUR IN
THE PLAINS AND OZARK REGION. THIS WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH TRANSITIONS EWD ACROSS THE MS...TN AND OH
VALLEYS.
queste le previ SPC, dopo che ci sono già stati i due mini outbreak della Florida e Louisiana.
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
ecco il 3d di riferimento x le previsioni di questo evento su stormtrack:
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=11081
eccone un passaggio:
this is one to watch. Can't ask for a lot more in February. ECMWF this morning(last night's 0z run) showing a sub-980 low in IA following a couple days of return flow off the gulf. Coupled upper jet structure over the southern states.
__________________
Mike Hollingshead
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
Very nice!!Looks like this could be a great sutup for pretty early tornado outbreak
Will keep monitoring...
Marko Korosec, Slovenia
Severe Weather Europe - http://www.severe-weather.EU
www.Weather-Photos.NET | http://www.facebook.com/WeatherPhotos.NET
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
piu che d'accordo Fabio, lo punto
And if the cloud bursts Thunder in your ear, You shout and no one seems to hear
----------------------------
always looking at the sky
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
Originariamente Scritto da Ben
piu che d'accordo Fabio, lo punto
update da SPC:
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST MON FEB 19 2007
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. AS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CNTRL U.S.
FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NWD INTO THE PLAINS AND
OZARK REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE NUMBER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NRN FL AND THE SRN PART OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ERN U.S.
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
dire che sarà un weekend interessante é dir poco. Sarà moderate risk, quantomeno
And if the cloud bursts Thunder in your ear, You shout and no one seems to hear
----------------------------
always looking at the sky
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
dire che sarà un weekend interessante é dir poco. Sarà moderate risk, quantomeno
io dico che SPC x l'occasione farà uscire il nuovo livello di rischio: Armageddon Risk:
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...PLAINS/MS VALLEY/SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
AN INCREDIBLE POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS IS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH. A 210 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AROUND MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AN IMMENSELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET 110 KT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL TRANSPORT ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
INTO OK AND KS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. APOCALYPTIC SUPECELL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG, NORTH, SOUTH, EAST AND BEHIND!!! THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON. INCREDIBLE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
MEGA-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES F5 WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
...A FAST AND FURIOUS SQUALL-LINE WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT POSSIBLE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NRN FL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE ALL DIE. TAKE CARE AND PRAY THE LORD.
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
io dico che SPC x l'occasione farà uscire il nuovo livello di rischio: Armageddon Risk:
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...PLAINS/MS VALLEY/SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
AN INCREDIBLE POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS IS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH. A 210 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AROUND MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AN IMMENSELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET 110 KT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL TRANSPORT ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
INTO OK AND KS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. APOCALYPTIC SUPECELL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG, NORTH, SOUTH, EAST AND BEHIND!!! THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON. INCREDIBLE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
MEGA-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES F5 WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
...A FAST AND FURIOUS SQUALL-LINE WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT POSSIBLE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NRN FL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE ALL DIE. TAKE CARE AND PRAY THE LORD.
la piu bella? Fast and furious
And if the cloud bursts Thunder in your ear, You shout and no one seems to hear
----------------------------
always looking at the sky
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
la piu bella? Fast and furious
eh, cmq c'è poco da scherzare. se fosse aprile o anche fine marzo con i venti messi come sono ora i modelli non mi stupirei di un 3-4 aprile 1974 bis. LLJ con punte a 80-90Kt:
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