Re: "It's the economy, stupid!"
Dal WJS, da 3 articoli a pagamento. Posto alcuni passi:Originariamente Scritto da snowaholic
President Trump will fire his first tariff salvo on Saturday against those notorious American adversaries . . . Mexico and Canada. They’ll get hit with a 25% border tax, while China, a real adversary, will endure 10%. This reminds us of the old Bernard Lewis joke that it’s risky to be America’s enemy but it can be fatal to be its friend.Drugs may be an excuse since Mr. Trump has made clear he likes tariffs for their own sake. “We don’t need the products that they have,” Mr. Trump said on Thursday. “We have all the oil you need. We have all the trees you need, meaning the lumber.”
Mr. Trump sometimes sounds as if the U.S. shouldn’t import anything at all, that America can be a perfectly closed economy making everything at home. This is called autarky, and it isn’t the world we live in, or one that we should want to live in, as Mr. Trump may soon find out.Take the U.S. auto industry, which is really a North American industry because supply chains in the three countries are highly integrated. In 2024 Canada supplied almost 13% of U.S. imports of auto parts and Mexico nearly 42%. Industry experts say a vehicle made on the continent goes back and forth across borders a half dozen times or more, as companies source components and add value in the most cost-effective ways.And everyone benefits. The office of the U.S. Trade Representative says that in 2023 the industry added more than $809 billion to the U.S. economy, or about 11.2% of total U.S. manufacturing output, supporting “9.7 million direct and indirect U.S. jobs.” In 2022 the U.S. exported $75.4 billion in vehicles and parts to Canada and Mexico. That number jumped 14% in 2023 to $86.2 billion, according to the American Automotive Policy Council.Tariffs will also cause mayhem in the cross-border trade in farm goods. In fiscal 2024, Mexican food exports made up about 23% of total U.S. agricultural imports while Canada supplied some 20%. Many top U.S. growers have moved to Mexico because limits on legal immigration have made it hard to find workers in the U.S. Mexico now supplies 90% of avocados sold in the U.S. Is Mr. Trump now an avocado nationalist?
The U.S. will impose tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, copper, oil and gas imports as soon as mid-February, President Trump said Friday, opening a new front in his looming second-term trade wars.“That’ll happen fairly soon,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, adding that he also wants to hike tariffs on the European Union, which has “treated us so horribly,” though he didn’t specify when or how high the duties would be. A representative for the European Union didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.The announcement for those sector-based and EU tariffs appeared separate from the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% tariffs on China, which he had said would be implemented Saturday.The duties previewed by Trump would come on top of existing tariffs on those products, he said, waving away any concern about the levies increasing inflation or snarling global supply chains.“I think there could be some temporary, short term disruption and people will understand that,” Trump said. “The tariffs are going to make us very rich and very strong.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Friday said the Mexico, Canada and China tariffs were coming but declined to speak on exemptions for certain products or what, if anything, the trading partners could do to avoid the duties. Trump’s team has also been considering a grace period between the announcement of the tariffs on Saturday and when they would actually be imposed. Leavitt seemed to play down that possibility on Friday, telling reporters Trump “will implement his tariffs tomorrow.”Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that there was nothing Canada, Mexico and China could do to avoid the tariffs before Saturday. But he did say he was considering a lower tariff on Canadian crude oil—10% instead of 25%.For weeks, large U.S. industries such as the oil and automotive sectors have lobbied him for exemptions from the tariffs, warning of higher prices and continental-wide supply-chain issues, while Canada and Mexico have prepared a list of retaliatory measures to hit U.S. products with tariffs in kind.The China tariff threat, meanwhile, has flown under the radar compared with the North American tariff pledges. While Trump said earlier this week that he was still considering duties on the world’s second-largest economy, he has rhetorically targeted Canada and Mexico much more often, and his team had appeared to have less contact with Chinese diplomats than officials from the U.S.’s continental neighbors.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that last fiscal year 21,148 pounds of fentanyl was seized at the southwest border, the most from U.S. citizens coming through legal ports of entry. On the northern border, CBP reported seizing 43 pounds of the drug.Throughout the process, Mexican and Canadian officials have expressed frustration that they don’t know what actions would satisfy Trump’s demands, despite weeks of meetings between senior officials. Indeed, the looming tariff announcement Saturday would follow the White House saying publicly this week that negotiations were progressing well with both nations.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, meanwhile, said her government is ready for Trump’s tariffs and would respond in kind.“We have Plan A, Plan B, Plan C for whatever the U.S. government decides,” Sheinbaum said. “It’s important to remember the implications that imposing tariffs could have for the U.S. economy.”
The president hasn’t said which legal authorities would be used to impose the tariffs. Trump advisers had considered using emergency economic authority to impose the sanctions, but The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that aides have second-guessed that strategy after a federal judge temporarily blocked a Trump administration memo seeking to freeze federal assistance grants and loans.While the U.S., Canada and Mexico have a standing free-trade agreement, it isn’t clear that the expected tariff action would immediately violate that pact. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, like most trade pacts, includes a provision that allows for the imposition of tariffs on national-security grounds.
U.S. car buyers on average would face price increases of roughly $3,000, according to estimates from analysts at Wolfe Research. Buyers of new cars paid about $46,200 on average in December, according to J.D. Power.Already, an affordability crunch in the U.S. car market has relegated many shoppers to the used-vehicle lot. Car prices in the U.S. soared earlier this decade because of vehicle shortages, and they remain roughly one-third higher than they were before the pandemic. There have been down-to-the-wire negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico and Canada over the tariffs. Auto-company lobbyists have been pressing for exemptions or a narrower scope should the tariffs go into effect. For now, many companies are planning for the worst-case scenario.Tariffs would upend the past three decades of the auto industry using free-trade rules and knitting together a vast factory web across the U.S., Mexico and Canada.Now, some are rushing orders to beat this weekend’s potential deadline. GM, for example, is expediting vehicle imports from Canada and Mexico and has factory space to shift some work to the U.S., if needed. But the company says it won’t spend significant capital until it has more clarity. Others are drawing up plans to source supplies from trade-friendly countries such as Thailand in case Mexico or Canada retaliates with their own tariffs.When President Trump first floated the idea in November of placing tariffs on imports from the U.S.’s two top trade partners—despite a free-trade pact that has been in place for decades—many auto executives dismissed it as a negotiating tactic. Jerome Dorlack, CEO of Dublin, Ireland-based seat maker Adient, told analysts on Tuesday that conversations with the automakers have begun. The company has 18 sites in Mexico and 30 in the U.S., according to regulatory filings.“We’ve made it clear to them that this is not, at a 25% level or even at a 10% level, a burden that Adient is prepared to take on,” he said.Mikael Bratt, CEO of Swedish airbag-maker Autoliv, which has factories in Canada and Mexico, put it bluntly during an earnings call Friday: “Of course, that’s a pass on to our customer,” he said of the prospective tariffs.More than a quarter of GM’s U.S.-sold cars come from Mexico or Canada, including some of its most lucrative product lines. Last year, about half of the one million Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickup trucks that GM made were built either in Canada or Mexico. A large majority of those trucks—the automaker’s top-selling models and biggest moneymakers—were shipped to the U.S. for sale.
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Re: "It's the economy, stupid!"
Grazie degli articoli, resto davvero allibito dell'approccio superficiale che trapela ovunque dalle azioni di questa amministrazione.
Prendiamo l'affermazione "abbiamo abbastanza petrolio". Vero, ma le raffinerie USA non sono in grado di raffinarlo e per convertirle servirebbero anni e miliardi di investimenti, in un momento in cui i consumi di benzina potrebbero calare rapidamente. Ha senso fare quell'investimento? Oppure i raffinatori del petrolio leggero USA si limiteranno a fare lauti profitti mentre quelli del petrolio pesante canadese avranno i margini ridotti al minimo?
Una cosa che si tende a sottovalutare dei dazi è che, oltre al costo diretto per i consumatori, vanno anche a gonfiare i profitti dei produttori nazionali. In qualche caso può essere funzionale a far sviluppare la produzione nazionale, in molti altri semplicemente diventa una redistribuzione verso l'alto del reddito.
Si pensano onnipotenti ma ricordano più una vecchia canzone dei Green Day, combinazione pericolosissima.
Re: "It's the economy, stupid!"
Per me a prescindere dagli effetti economici il problema sta nel rendere nulla con questo comportamento l'affidabilità di qualsiasi contratto/trattato/accordo stipulato d'ora in avanti. E la certezza del diritto è quello in buona parte ha permesso lo sviluppo della società occidentale.
https://themarketjourney.substack.com :
economia, modelli, mercato, finanza
Re: "It's the economy, stupid!"
Questo per me era già assodato nel momento in cui aveva vinto Trump a novembre, con il supporto o di buona parte del mondo imprenditoriale e della finanza.
Il vandalismo costituzionale e del diritto internazionale era estremamente esplicito, ma stava bene a tutti purché non toccasse il loro portafogli.
Ormai c'è un cinismo diffuso riguardo al rispetto delle regole e delle istituzioni, tanto tra le élite che ammirano i regimi autoritari quanto nelle fasce di popolazione meno istruite che desiderano l'uomo forte al comando. Poi quando l'uomo forte fa di testa sua e va contro ai loro interessi non sanno cosa fare. Anche ora che il piano Musk/Trump si sta dispiegando in tutta la sua follia sta trovando pochissime resistenze a tutti i livelli.
Re: "It's the economy, stupid!"
Tra 4 anni se è così se ne vedranno gli effetti malsani e non lo si rivoterà.
Il mondo sta in mano a 3 vecchi bacucchi che stanno facendo solo danni (Trump, Xi, Putin)
Re: "It's the economy, stupid!"
Sempre che esistano ancora le elezioni in America al tempo, che vista la deriva autoritaria che sta avendo indisturbato inizio a dubitare pure di quello
Database dei record in Toscana: http://climaintoscana.altervista.org/
Record assoluti: +43,1°C ad Antella il 06/08/2003; -26,0°C a Firenzuola l'08/01/1985.
Re: "It's the economy, stupid!"
Vi posto questo punto di vista
Cavalcando il popolo MAGA, Musk (e altri imprenditori) stanno spingendo per un modello in cui si fa politica con gli affari e si fanno affari con la politica. La spesa pubblica non verso il fabbisogno sociale (welfare) né per obiettivi strategici di politica estera (Ucraina), ma verso le grandi corporationa cui si concedono condizioni fiscali sempre più agevoli (vedi grafico).
Anche il presidente Mattarella, nel discorso di Capodanno, lo ha sottolineato: “A livello globale aumenta in modo esponenziale la ricchezza di pochissimi mentre si espande la povertà di tanti”.
Si tratta di un déjà-vu.
La Germania del primo 900 favoriva la formazione di cartelli e monopoli, strumento di forza dell'economia. Questo toglieva ai cittadini ogni beneficio della concorrenza, sia come consumatori che come lavoratori. Sul disagio sociale ha proliferato Hitler, a cui è bastato accordarsi con poche persone per avere in pugno il supporto del settore industriale.
Gli industriali tedeschi salvarono il partito nazista dal fallimento.
Questa è la principale ragione per cui il capitalismo anglosassone, dopo la seconda guerra mondiale, è diventato attentissimo alle questioni antitrust. E questa è anche la ragione per cui dobbiamo preoccuparci che le “Magnifiche 7” continuino a catalizzare crescita, investitori, e capacità di sterilizzare la concorrenza. Non è solo un tema economico-finanziario ma anche politico-sociale.
La strada per il fascismo, il socialismo totalitario e le dittature è lastricata di errori di politica economica nel soddisfare le esigenze della popolazione.
Qualche malintenzionato assegna la colpa a immigrati, sessualmente diversi, minoranze e/o élite cospirative e accende così l'appetito per leadership nazionaliste ed estremiste.
Il risultato lo conosciamo tutti
Ora pensiero mio:
In tutto questo la controparte politica cosa ha fatto cosa fa cosa ha proposto cosa propone oltre all'ostentazione di una supposta superiorità intellettuale, morale ed identitaria.
Il risultato è stato perdere i voti di chi non voterebbe mai Trump ma ha preferito rimanere a casa.
Almeno questo è quello che mi è sembrato di capire dal confronto dei numeri delle 2 elezioni che ho fatto con wikipedia.
Trump ha vinto il voto popolare con i voti di chi è rimasto a casa
È un discorso che applicherei anche all Italia.
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IMVHO
https://themarketjourney.substack.com :
economia, modelli, mercato, finanza
Re: "It's the economy, stupid!"
Infatti gli effetti piu negativi per l´economia che applica i dazi sono generalmente nel medio-lungo periodo: i dazi agiscono come una sorta di "ombrello" contro la concorrenza per i produttori interni, e proprio questo spinge gli stessi a ridurre gli investimenti in ricerca e sviluppo ed in innovazioni di processo, con la conseguenza che divengono sempre meno in grado di soddisfare i bisogni dei consumatori.
Ne deriva un´economia progressivamente piu povera e arretrata, incapace di tenere il passo dei competitor esteri.
Naturalmente, per chi ha come orizzonte la successiva elezione, nessun problema in tutto cio, al massimo una volta all´opposizione si potra dare la colpa al governo in corso in quel momento
«L'Italia va avanti perché ci sono i fessi. I fessi lavorano, pagano, crepano. Chi fa la figura di mandare avanti l'Italia sono i furbi, che non fanno nulla, spendono e se la godono» (Giuseppe Prezzolini, 1921)
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