For the first time after many years a part of cold air from North Sibiria has reached Central Europe




In the late winter of 2004/05 the first hints for the devellopment of a colder period corresponding with the beginning minimum
of the solar activity could be observed. So the statistical forecasts have shown higher pressure over Northern and Eastern
Europe in the following winter. The autumn pressure and temperature regime over Europe then produced some other forecast
results.Even the circulation model computations have brought similar results after colder winter forecasts in the summer before.
The latest model temperature outputs for January have shown relatively warm regions over most of the European regions, also
over eastern Europe. The reason for the uncertainty may be, that the energy exchange between the troposhere and the
stratosphere has been very extreme in the past time. In most of the former years the stratosperic circulation has intensified
very soon after the breakdown. As the temperature decrease in the stratosphere due to the climate change was enormous
in the middle and lower latitudes, the regeneration of the westerly wind regime seems to become more difficult under the
present conditions. The reestablishment of the normal circulation will probably happen slowly in the lower stratosphere
until March. The circulation in the troposphere will probably remain disturbed and weaker than in the years before.