Winter 2008/9 forecast

Updated 25 November 2008
Forecast for Winter 2008/9


Temperature

Winter temperatures are more likely to be above 1971-2000 averages over northern Europe and parts of southern and eastern Europe. However, over northern Europe, this winter is likely to be less mild than last winter. In other regions the chances for above or below average are evenly balanced.
For the winter as a whole, UK mean temperatures are more likely to be near or above average. However, we are likely to have a cold start to the winter with temperatures below average in December.
Rainfall

Below-average precipitation is slightly favoured over parts of central Europe; elsewhere the chances of above and below average are more evenly balanced.
For the UK, precipitation is more likely to be average, or below average.


Forecast uncertainties
Seasonal forecasts indicate how slowly-varying large-scale climate influences make particular seasonal conditions more likely than others. Random, unpredictable factors ('chaos') also partly determine year-to-year variations, and these will sometimes override large-scale influences. Such uncertainties make a probabilistic format, as used here, advisable for seasonal forecasts.
Updates and reviews of the forecast
Updates to the forecast will be issued at 10 a.m. on: 22 December and 22 January 2009. A monthly appraisal of the winter will start in early January 2009.