Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

**Aragorth** · 28/03/2007, 19:12

Originariamente Scritto da debris74

mio target finale di partenza: Childress, TX.

hehe I was sure you will take Childress

I agree, it does look like the best spot there...area from Childress, TX into area around Altus, OK. I'll wait in Elk City until first towers and then decide of whether go west or south.

**debris74** · 28/03/2007, 19:13

mi puzza di gran macello:

**debris74** · 28/03/2007, 19:17

Originariamente Scritto da Aragorth

hehe I was sure you will take Childress

I agree, it does look like the best spot there...area from Childress, TX into area around Altus, OK. I'll wait in Elk City until first towers and then decide of whether go west or south.

wow:

**Aragorth** · 28/03/2007, 19:23

"hi hi hi" is all I can say...can't wait for the initiation!!

**Aragorth** · 28/03/2007, 19:29

here we go...first MCD is out...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PNHDL...SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281822Z - 281945Z

LATEST RUC SUGGESTS DESTABILIZATION IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED WITH
INHIBITION WEAKENING EAST OF SURFACE DRY LINE...FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS STRONGEST...ALONG 30-40 KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS SOMEWHAT
RESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING TO THIS POINT...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-
2OOO J/KG. WITH FURTHER INSOLATION...THIS MAY REACH 2000-3000 J/KG
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK IMPULSE MAY BE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE PRESENT
TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO
MIX EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS.
WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE WELL UPSTREAM...IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHEN/IF PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE INITIATION OF AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF DRY
LINE...BENEATH DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
20-21Z.

IF THIS OCCURS...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM IN
ENVIRONMENT WITH SIZABLE...CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS...BENEATH
MODERATELY STRONG AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY HIGH LEVEL JET.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENSUE INTO/THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING ALONG DRY LINE...ACCOMPANIED BY RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 03/28/2007

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0358.html

**Ben** · 28/03/2007, 20:12

Amarillo (Texas)

**Aragorth** · 28/03/2007, 20:21

...and the one in west NE...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...SW SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281904Z - 282100Z

DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE CYCLONE. THIS IS ALSO ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TO THE EAST OF THE WYOMING FRONT RANGE.

DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS PRESENTLY
VERY WEAK. BUT...MID-LEVEL COOLING IN THE EXIT REGION OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY HIGH LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. AND...LIFT SEEMS LIKELY TO OVERCOME WEAK INHIBITION
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.

AS THIS OCCURS...IN STRONGLY SHEARED DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH STRONG
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...FORMATION OF SUPERCELLS IS
EXPECTED WITH RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SEEMS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH
AS THE BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY WILL ENHANCE
FORCING FOR STORMS...DESPITE PRESENCE OF COOLER LESS UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

..KERR.. 03/28/2007

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0360.html

Ohhh this is gonna hurt