Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

[debris74]

So this means you didn't have a success yet in your chasing career, since you haven't seen a tornado?! Honestly I have a success with a nice storm structure already, but of course if there is a tornado its even better for sure, not to mention outbreak hehe If I'd be picking up my limits that high (e.g. tornado), then I wouldn't be chasing here

In facts.. Andrea never chase in Italy. He's tornado addicted



But I really can't blame him. Storm chasing is really expensive and we have so small % of tornadoes and even nice structures. Anyway he lost some great Italian storm in 2001-2002 and 2004

[debris74]

It's not true we didn'see any tornadoes.In 2005 I and Fabio chased two real supercells and we didn't see the real monster as we wanted to see, but we saw two tornadoes; we chased the Grand Iskand supercell. Spc reported some tornadoes in those zones and we saw one low contrast tornado. It was a funnel not completely condensated.

On may 13 we chased a beautiful supercell with one low contrast tornado. This is the Fabio's photo.

this is not my photo andrea...

[griffa-petrucci]

In facts.. Andrea never chase in Italy. He's tornado addicted



But I really can't blame him. Storm chasing is really expensive and we have so small % of tornadoes and even nice structures. Anyway he lost some great Italian storm in 2001-2002 and 2004

Yep.Anyway I love nice structures, no doubts about it but in chasing I (and Fabio too ) feel realized when you nail the big one. If not it's a partial thing.

[debris74]

Yep.Anyway I love nice structures, no doubts about it but in chasing I (and Fabio too ) feel realized when you nail the big one. If not it's a partial thing.

yeah I know... u are a "megalomane"




but after 2648345 nice structures seen and small F0-1/ funnels, I feel exactly like u.

[griffa-petrucci]

yeah I know... u are a "megalomane"




but after 2648345 nice structures seen and small F0/ funnels, I feel exactly like u.

Pensavo fosse il tuo frame quello lì..

[debris74]

Pensavo fosse il tuo frame quello lì..

no è questo:

[Aragorth]

hehe its all fine, I just pointed out I am not pushing limits so high, in that way we might be dissapointed many times All tornadoes I saw were shitty ones, those brief F0 touchowns, but hopefully we will have an amazing pattern during May and observe some true tubes

Did you guys noticed 300h+ pattern, if you didn't...you don't even want to see that

[debris74]

new Day4 outlook:

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES/ENTERING THE PLAINS DAY 4
/SAT. APR. 21/. NOT ONLY ARE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE CURRENT
RUN EXTREMELY SIMILAR...BUT A GREAT DEAL OF MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
EXISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN DEPICTING THIS FEATURE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR SAT. APR. 21.

THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE ATTM APPEARS TO BE THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN...AS TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF/INTO TX REMAIN
ELY/ESELY AROUND A LARGE HIGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS/GULF OF
MEXICO. HAVING SAID THIS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE
STRENGTH OF THE EJECTING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WILL
SUPPORT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF
RELATIVELY LIMITED INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT
FOR SAT. /DAY 4/ ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS.

THE POSSIBLE LACK OF MOISTURE MAY BECOME MORE OF A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR DAY 5...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THE MID/UPPER MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...OVERALL DEGREE OF SEVERE MAY BE
LIMITED DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT
FOR DAY 5 ATTM.

MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES -- AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING -- FOR
DAYS 6-8. WHILE BOTH MODELS BRING A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO 24 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF. THUS...WILL
REFRAIN ATTM FROM HIGHLIGHTING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE ATTM...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SEVERE
EVENT WILL INDEED OCCUR SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6-8 TIME FRAME OVER THE
SRN PLAINS.

geeez

[griffa-petrucci]

hehe its all fine, I just pointed out I am not pushing limits so high, in that way we might be dissapointed many times All tornadoes I saw were shitty ones, those brief F0 touchowns, but hopefully we will have an amazing pattern during May and observe some true tubes

Did you guys noticed 300h+ pattern, if you didn't...you don't even want to see that

I know Marko, but there's nothing to do..We are drugged of tornadoes. If we don't see at least one of those, we're not realized in chasing, it's our nature. This year we won't go in California as usual and if weather wants, we'll be able to chasing a little longer time. We have only to hope that this trend will keep on in this way. If not we go skiing in Denver, and we'll chase girls

[debris74]

cosa c'è scritto? 995 o 985mb?

è sicuramente 995 ma se fosse 985 sarebbe la fineeee

cmq mi sono fatto l'idea che avremo dew sotto i 60F sabato. potrebbe bastare ma dopo quella freddata di inizio aprile io penso che le mid e high plains non siano ancora pronte x un outbreak che arriverà a maggio.