Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

[griffa-petrucci]

hmm looking good...the squall line finally got ahead of the dryline which is currently positioned in the line Medicine Longe-Watonga-Lawton-Abilene. This might be a good thing for later jet ejection over there

Mmmm I've got some concerns that squall on the radar is not a dryline one produced :I think that the dry line will produce something like an isolated sup in Ks,and ok from 00Z.

[Aragorth]

Mmmm I've got some concerns that is not a dryline that squall:I think that the dry line will produce something like an isolated sup in Ks,and ok from 00Z.

I am not exactly sure if those storms that got into squall line formed on the dryline or not, but now certainly dryline is well behind that squall and since its ONLY 19z right now, there is still 3-4h of strong heating...and we shall see something nasty sups later on around KS/OK border, agreed on that

[Aragorth]

WOW the SPC upgraded it into HIGH risk over portions of eastern TX





30% for tornadoes...ohhh man that is sick

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREAS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...INCLUDING PARTS
OF CNTRL/ERN KS AND OK...TX...NW LA...WRN AR...AND SW MO....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CYCLONE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
OCCLUDING. INITIAL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH HAS ROTATED AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER
SCALE CIRCULATION...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...WITH
ANOTHER IMPULSE BEGINNING TO DIG TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.


...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
IN THE EXIT REGION OF 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
INITIAL IMPULSE...STORMS REMAIN CELLULAR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...NEAR WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF
CYCLONE...NEAR/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. EMBEDDED WITHIN
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW...CELLS HAVE BEEN
QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH OF EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT...MINIMIZING
TORNADO POTENTIAL TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ROOT IN MOIST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE A BIT FURTHER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME
INCREASING SURFACE BASED. LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED IN WARM
SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...BUT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT STILL
APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE WINDS
ARE BACKED NEAR WARM FRONT.

FARTHER SOUTH...WIND SHIFT...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE HAVE PROVIDED FORCING/FOCUS FOR
EVOLVING SQUALL LINE NEAR/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF DRY LINE...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
ACTIVITY INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS HAVE NOT
STEEPENED STRONGLY...BUT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LINE IS LIKELY. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY WITH SQUALL LINE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN AND AHEAD OF LINE.

...CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX/EXTREME SE OKLAHOMA...
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IN WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...REMAINS STRONG.
40+ KT 850 SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS. WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM MAY AID LARGE SCALE FORCING...AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AND...TORNADIC POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME HIGH WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF BROKEN SQUALL LINE
ADVANCING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS/WATCHES.

..KERR.. 04/24/2007

[griffa-petrucci]

E alla fine le zone di Harper Cauni sono state quelle giuste Parlano di una gran bella supercella con tornado multipli. Altro che high risk...Ci andava uno slight o a malapena un moderino.

[griffa-petrucci]

Per oggi e per ora il mio target è Pryor,Ok

[Aragorth]

Thatz is what I call sweet jesus



Man, pattern after May 3rd does look really incredible funtil the end of current maps covering...there shouldn't be boring time this May!!

[griffa-petrucci]

Ehi,Marko, what a pattern..It looks really strong!

Ciccio,continua ad aggiornarmi ogni tanto con le proiezioni in lungo

[Aragorth]

Fabio,

I remember you were talking its gonna be boring stuff for me in the US last year when I went there. Do you maybe still have any maps from those late April days and May maps and how the pattern was going? I'd be really interested to compare it.

Or if you know for any website where we can see archived GFS reanalysis maps for the last year, that'd be even more. Thanks!

[debris74]

Ehi,Marko, what a pattern..It looks really strong!

Ciccio,continua ad aggiornarmi ogni tanto con le proiezioni in lungo

allora... la cosa diventa sempre + interessante. parliamo del prossimo peggioramento: gli ultimi runs di GFS continuano a confermare la forte colata fredda. anche ECMWF conferma, quindi ormai possiamo darlo per certo. MA c'è speranza... il trend di GFS è al ritardo. prima metteva il macello al 2, poi al 3, con l'ultimo run siamo arrivati al 5. un altro giorno in la e ce la potremo fare. sono carte a 9-10 giorni, cambieranno ancora. a noi tocca stare qui a vedere. cmq è divertente questa suspance. dopo il 5-6 la tendenza rimane poi sempre buona.

[debris74]

Fabio,

I remember you were talking its gonna be boring stuff for me in the US last year when I went there. Do you maybe still have any maps from those late April days and May maps and how the pattern was going? I'd be really interested to compare it.

Or if you know for any website where we can see archived GFS reanalysis maps for the last year, that'd be even more. Thanks!

hi Marko,

I don't know. try to ask it on ST.

if u are looking for events try:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/