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  1. #971
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    Citazione Originariamente Scritto da Aragorth Visualizza Messaggio
    hmm looking good...the squall line finally got ahead of the dryline which is currently positioned in the line Medicine Longe-Watonga-Lawton-Abilene. This might be a good thing for later jet ejection over there
    Mmmm I've got some concerns that squall on the radar is not a dryline one produced :I think that the dry line will produce something like an isolated sup in Ks,and ok from 00Z.
    Immagini Allegate Immagini Allegate

  2. #972
    Team Leader Slovenija L'avatar di Aragorth
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    Citazione Originariamente Scritto da griffa-petrucci Visualizza Messaggio
    Mmmm I've got some concerns that is not a dryline that squall:I think that the dry line will produce something like an isolated sup in Ks,and ok from 00Z.
    I am not exactly sure if those storms that got into squall line formed on the dryline or not, but now certainly dryline is well behind that squall and since its ONLY 19z right now, there is still 3-4h of strong heating...and we shall see something nasty sups later on around KS/OK border, agreed on that

  3. #973
    Team Leader Slovenija L'avatar di Aragorth
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    WOW the SPC upgraded it into HIGH risk over portions of eastern TX





    30% for tornadoes...ohhh man that is sick

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0255 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

    VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

    ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS
    PARTS OF CNTRL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS....

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
    AREAS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...INCLUDING PARTS
    OF CNTRL/ERN KS AND OK...TX...NW LA...WRN AR...AND SW MO....

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
    CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    DEEP CYCLONE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
    OCCLUDING. INITIAL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED
    LOW/TROUGH HAS ROTATED AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER
    SCALE CIRCULATION...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...WITH
    ANOTHER IMPULSE BEGINNING TO DIG TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.


    ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
    IN THE EXIT REGION OF 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
    INITIAL IMPULSE...STORMS REMAIN CELLULAR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
    CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...NEAR WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF
    CYCLONE...NEAR/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. EMBEDDED WITHIN
    DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW...CELLS HAVE BEEN
    QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH OF EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT...MINIMIZING
    TORNADO POTENTIAL TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO
    HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ROOT IN MOIST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF
    1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE A BIT FURTHER LATE
    THIS AFTERNOON...AND TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME
    INCREASING SURFACE BASED. LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED IN WARM
    SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST
    OKLAHOMA...BUT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT STILL
    APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE WINDS
    ARE BACKED NEAR WARM FRONT.

    FARTHER SOUTH...WIND SHIFT...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
    ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE HAVE PROVIDED FORCING/FOCUS FOR
    EVOLVING SQUALL LINE NEAR/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ACROSS
    CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN
    ADVANCE OF DRY LINE...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
    RATES AND CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
    ACTIVITY INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS HAVE NOT
    STEEPENED STRONGLY...BUT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR
    FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LINE IS LIKELY. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
    GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY WITH SQUALL LINE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
    ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN AND AHEAD OF LINE.

    ...CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX/EXTREME SE OKLAHOMA...
    LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
    INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IN WARM SECTOR
    BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...REMAINS STRONG.
    40+ KT 850 SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH EARLY
    EVENING...AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES
    INTO WEST TEXAS. WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
    STREAM MAY AID LARGE SCALE FORCING...AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
    LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
    AND...TORNADIC POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG
    TORNADOES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME HIGH WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF BROKEN SQUALL LINE
    ADVANCING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS.

    **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT
    SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
    DISCUSSIONS/WATCHES.

    ..KERR.. 04/24/2007

  4. #974
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    E alla fine le zone di Harper Cauni sono state quelle giuste Parlano di una gran bella supercella con tornado multipli. Altro che high risk...Ci andava uno slight o a malapena un moderino.

  5. #975
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    Per oggi e per ora il mio target è Pryor,Ok

  6. #976
    Team Leader Slovenija L'avatar di Aragorth
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    Thatz is what I call sweet jesus



    Man, pattern after May 3rd does look really incredible funtil the end of current maps covering...there shouldn't be boring time this May!!

  7. #977
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    Ehi,Marko, what a pattern..It looks really strong!

    Ciccio,continua ad aggiornarmi ogni tanto con le proiezioni in lungo

  8. #978
    Team Leader Slovenija L'avatar di Aragorth
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    Fabio,

    I remember you were talking its gonna be boring stuff for me in the US last year when I went there. Do you maybe still have any maps from those late April days and May maps and how the pattern was going? I'd be really interested to compare it.

    Or if you know for any website where we can see archived GFS reanalysis maps for the last year, that'd be even more. Thanks!


  9. #979
    Vento forte L'avatar di debris74
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    Citazione Originariamente Scritto da griffa-petrucci Visualizza Messaggio
    Ehi,Marko, what a pattern..It looks really strong!

    Ciccio,continua ad aggiornarmi ogni tanto con le proiezioni in lungo


    allora... la cosa diventa sempre + interessante. parliamo del prossimo peggioramento: gli ultimi runs di GFS continuano a confermare la forte colata fredda. anche ECMWF conferma, quindi ormai possiamo darlo per certo. MA c'è speranza... il trend di GFS è al ritardo. prima metteva il macello al 2, poi al 3, con l'ultimo run siamo arrivati al 5. un altro giorno in la e ce la potremo fare. sono carte a 9-10 giorni, cambieranno ancora. a noi tocca stare qui a vedere. cmq è divertente questa suspance. dopo il 5-6 la tendenza rimane poi sempre buona.
    Immagini Allegate Immagini Allegate

  10. #980
    Vento forte L'avatar di debris74
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    Predefinito Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

    Citazione Originariamente Scritto da Aragorth Visualizza Messaggio
    Fabio,

    I remember you were talking its gonna be boring stuff for me in the US last year when I went there. Do you maybe still have any maps from those late April days and May maps and how the pattern was going? I'd be really interested to compare it.

    Or if you know for any website where we can see archived GFS reanalysis maps for the last year, that'd be even more. Thanks!


    hi Marko,

    I don't know. try to ask it on ST.

    if u are looking for events try:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/


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