aggiornamenti in Day3 Outlook.

SPC AC 260825

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CST MON FEB 26 2007

VALID 281200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK...AR
AND SERN MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A CLOSED
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LARGE SWATH OF 70 TO 90
KT MID LEVEL WINDS...ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH...IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO TX/OK. ALTHOUGH THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SIMILAR ON THE VARIOUS MODELS ...THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SPEED OF FRONT VARIES DUE TO
STRENGTH OF NRN PLAINS UPPER LOW. PREFER EURO AND SREF SURFACE
SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM AND GFS...SUGGESTING
AT 01/12Z...SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN NERN MO/WRN IL WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO ERN OK/CENTRAL TX.

...ERN OK/AR/SRN MO...
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS ERN TX/OK AR AND LA...EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE CONVECTIVE
FREE AS 30-40 KT SWLY WINDS AT 850 MB ADVECT A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS
ABOVE THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS FALL
AROUND 60M AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 60 KT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WOULD STAY CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND BULK
SHEAR AT 40 KT WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL. SURFACE BASED
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS SURFACE
PARCELS ARE FORCED THROUGH THE CAP. IF THIS HAPPENS...A WIND THREAT
IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY S
LIKELY TO WAIT FOR DIURNAL HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG CAP IS LIKELY TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SWD
ALONG THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL/ERN TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE ELEVATED
STORMS WITH A HAIL POTENTIAL ARE POSSIBLE IN SRN IL.

..IMY.. 02/26/2007

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