Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

**debris74** · 23/04/2007, 18:45

è uscito il nuovo day2 di SPC. l'area di MDTrisk è stata ampliata ma il frasario si è ridimensionato. nn si parla + per esempio di significant tornadoes ma solo di tornadoes. rimane la parola outbreak. potrebbe anche nn esserci l'HighRisk domani, vedremo.

**debris74** · 23/04/2007, 18:51

ecco qua le differenze...

day2 di stamattina:

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /A FEW
SIGNIFICANT/...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

day2 del pomeriggio:

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...INCLUDING MUCH OF KS/ERN OK...CNTRL/NRN TX AND
PARTS OF WRN MO/WRN AR...WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES....

altro passaggio saliente:

SOME CONCERN EXISTS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY
OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON INSOLATION...

**griffa-petrucci** · 23/04/2007, 19:52

Originariamente Scritto da debris74

ZOMG!!!

nuove GFS:

Mamma mia Ciccio che Dio ti benedica

**Aragorth** · 23/04/2007, 20:20

WOW guys did you noticed dewpoints exceeding 70°F in southeast TX?!

http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/...=-1&duration=0

Also looking nasty for eastern TX today...easily above 60F...ohhh omg lucky bastards if the cap erodes a bit later than expected!

**griffa-petrucci** · 23/04/2007, 20:40

Originariamente Scritto da Aragorth

WOW guys did you noticed dewpoints exceeding 70°F in southeast TX?!

http://rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/...=-1&duration=0

Also looking nasty for eastern TX today...easily above 60F...ohhh omg lucky bastards if the cap erodes a bit later than expected!

Oh my God Marko I really didn't see it!

I think this evening we'll see something really interesting

**Aragorth** · 23/04/2007, 20:46

Originariamente Scritto da griffa-petrucci

Oh my God Marko I really didn't see it!

I think this evening we'll see something really interesting

Indeed!

Notice there is already 3000 of SBCAPE over large area around eastern TX Panhandle (I meant the same in my last post, just forgot the "Panhandle")!

And what the ***... there is no CAP? CINH is 0??

Now I became nervous what will happen

MCD is finally issued...its showtime!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE TX
PANHANDLE/WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231902Z - 232045Z

CORRECTED FOR MISSING GRAPHIC

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

AMA 18Z RAOB SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAP...BUT DAYTIME HEATING
IS ONGOING ALONG NRN/WRN FRINGES OF THICKER CLOUD SHIELD OF WRN N
TX/WRN OK. AS HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTENT/WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ALONG THE
DRYLINE...CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT -- WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE SHALLOW CU FIELD
IS NOW DEVELOPING. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAP LAYER...WHICH COMBINED WITH AMPLE
SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR SHORTLY AFTER DEVELOPMENT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BY EARLY EVENING WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

..GOSS.. 04/23/2007

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0543.html

Do I hear a PDS?

**griffa-petrucci** · 23/04/2007, 20:48