Still a ways to go before Saturday and a lot of details to flesh out, but the 18Z
NAM/
GFS are looking downright apocalyptic. Shear/instability profiles are comparable to May 4, 2003 (a significantly different setup, though), except this time it's over an even larger area. Storm motions look to be a little speedy, but not unbearable.
Friday looks pretty interesting as well, though as has been discussed it appears that storms could come at a premium. Something of interest to note is that it's actually possible that the show could start from storms firing near the triple point before sundown Friday and continue (perhaps with a bit of a break or none at all) through the night and into the next day. The thermodynamic conditions at night do not preclude this from happening, as the cap is not especially strong in the wee hours Saturday morning and
CAPE is plentiful. It could be interesting to work with a nice
LLJ in the middle of the night, I recall this happened very early in the morning on May 8, 2003, when a monster wedge occurred in southern OK before the big show later during daytime. At any rate, as things stand now, if Saturday still looks like this on the models tomorrow I'd definitely go high risk on the day 2, as setups don't look any more impressive than this.
EDIT: 00Z
NAM/
GFS are out, and it's still looking like a monster outbreak for Saturday. The
NAM/
GFS are still hinting at the potential for some activity Friday night in Oklahoma. This continues to look really scary.
Segnalibri