Un nuovo Super Inverno alle porte?

[Friedrich 91]

dici? sento ottimi pareri anche per Roma e costa tirrenica. addirittura si parla di neve possibile fino alle coste , e lo dice gente di cui io mi fido molto.

Da cosa si puo giudicare tutto questo?

magari ne aveve già parlato ma quali saranno le probabili mosse del Vp in chiave tardo autunnale e invernale(dico fine dicembre e gennaio) ?

Scusami se te lo dico eh,ma chiunque ADESSO, in questo momento sta dicendo che nevicherà a Roma fino alle coste o fino ai castelli o a Canicattì, può essere due cose:

- un farneticatore professionista bon da nient!
- un preveggente del quale la scienza non si occupa

In questo momento non è assolutamente possibile anche solo provare a pensare se nevicherà a Roma o meno.

Già facciamo non poca fatica a capire come sarà l'inverno in Europa, secondo te come possiamo anche solo pensare di prevedere se nevicherà a Roma nel quartiere tale quest'inverno?

Posto e considerato che comunque Roma ha una nevosità tale per cui la neve risulta decisamente un eccezione non la regola

[tornado_valley]

Scusami se te lo dico eh,ma chiunque ADESSO, in questo momento sta dicendo che nevicherà a Roma fino alle coste o fino ai castelli o a Canicattì, può essere due cose:

- un farneticatore professionista bon da nient!
- un preveggente del quale la scienza non si occupa

In questo momento non è assolutamente possibile anche solo provare a pensare se nevicherà a Roma o meno.

Già facciamo non poca fatica a capire come sarà l'inverno in Europa, secondo te come possiamo anche solo pensare di prevedere se nevicherà a Roma nel quartiere tale quest'inverno?

Posto e considerato che comunque Roma ha una nevosità tale per cui la neve risulta decisamente un eccezione non la regola

Sperando che, dopo quest'ultimo ed esasperato intervento, se lo metta in zucca!!!

[paolo zamparutti]

prendetelo per divertimento :D

Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way: Voice of Russia

[BigWhite]

Il commento di Joe Bastardi

YouTube - Joe Bastardi, annuncia inverno freddo.!

Correlazioni plausibili basate su ENSO e attività solare. Il suo ragionamento fila. Vedremo

[mandu]

Quell'intervento credo sia già stato commentato un po di tempo fa, più che altro parla dei prossimi inverni e non di quello attuale..

[Fabry18]

pensavo giusto a Bastardi in questi giorni, beh qui veniamo chiamati in causa.

SATURDAY OCT 2.

NOT THE WINTER FORECAST BUT SOMETHING ABOUT WINTER

SOME MAJOR QUESTIONS ON MY MIND.

The first is what kind of winter will Europe have. The other is: Are Napa valley ( California) wines as good as Italian wines.

My father, who is first generation American from Italian heritage ( I am second) has recently become a convert to Napa valley wines. One of the reasons is my be he simply is not over in Italy enough. But believe it or not, there is a weather linkage here... as it seems that that seasons with an el nino coming on do produce some great wines in certain grapes. Knowing this, I go after napa valley wines from years with an el nino coming on, though now that the PDO is cold, there are going to be some bigger problems. Look for Italian wines, as long as they arent loaded up with sulfites, to start winning more contests in the coming years. This is an interesting test of climate theory.. for instance, is it the warm PDO that helped Napa valley catch the south of europe? To people that like a good red sipping wine, and only the past year or so has that part of me emerged, this will be a raging question. And you thought this climate debate was an agenda item with. Ha! there are far bigger things involved here, and one of them is wondering about this aspect..involving wine and the overall effect of the climate cycles on them. And if it is global warming or whatever they are calling it today ( climate disruption I believe is the latest misnomer), why doesnt anyone bring up the fact that we are seeing better and better wines with the warming. That ought to tell you something ( for people who have not read me before.. I do like to have a little fun here, okay)

Anyway ,my father is also a meteorologist who has instilled in me some ideas on the weather, based on his experience, and part of this has lead to my overall attitude on climate change, since his experience was such that the weather over here in the states was harsher when he was growing up ( 30s through 50s) when the PDO was warm, and then turned colder, and the AMO turned warm. The intersection of the two produced an interesting linkage between atlantic hurricane activity and the weather. This disappears when the AMO turns warm. But its fascinating to see what using the analog gives us for the winter and then applying the computer forecast gives us. Put it this way... for large parts of Europe, another year where the Global warming crowd is going to take a beating from the APPEARANCE of the weather is on the way!

My official forecast is not out till after Oct 15. The demands of my job are such I cant do what I did last year, as there is much more intensive "drudgery" rather than labor of love that I would rather do Being in a dogfight over the european weather and trying to compete is something I cherished, but I cant do it without pushing myself as hard as possible. Today have spent several hours looking at things I had been suspecting in that I dont have the "drudgery work" on a Saturday, ( By the way.. drudgery as I call it is something that has a higher calling. No less than Martin Luther said that a milkmaid can milk a cow for the glory of God, and he is right about that. It is a hard lesson to learn though.) I do have a glass of wine in front of me ( which I allow myself on a Saturday) and in the interest of keeping my Euro readers happy, its origin shall not be revealed, so I have been digging in to some of my dads ideas and applying them.

"Oh my papa, to me you were so wonderful" is something that lovers of cold weather would get from this

The three years that stick out like a sore thumb are 1950-1951,1955-1956 and 1995-1996 for europe. What is fascinating here is that we actually have a model that looks exactly like what those analogs would give. The theory involves linking the intensity of the atlantic hurricane season, for that gives us a certain message about the upward motion patterns that have set up over the atlantic, with the la nina in the pacific. Most interesting about all of this.... all three years we had a warm amo. The main idea I have out for the winter is that there will be large scale chill again. however the theory gives us stronger chill further north! This agrees strongly with the US generated CFS. In fact they are amazingly close! But here is the kicker. The same method , used back here in the states, agrees with the european, which is warmer in the north in Europe. So Joey boy has some work to do.

The purpose of this post is to let you know I am pushing myself as hard as I can to keep you up to date. I believe that this is a colder than normal winter for a large part of europe, but I am torn as to where right now. I am going to research it and come up with the answer, but understand that there are some things going on here that to me, are even more important than hitting the forecast. My father and mother are, and always will be heroes to me. My dad was a great forecaster but gave that up for his family. That his ideas were handed down to me and I might use them as I got older, well to someone like me, somehow transcends the whole forecast. I will tell you this, when I see linkage in analogs and models, it is impressive, because it means that the past and the future are holding hands. I blew NOAA out of the water this summer here in the US as my analogs had a very warm summer, the CFS was cool, so was the NOAA IDEA and the analogs and the euro forecast linked here over the states and carried the field. Interestingly enough the brutality, that is the only way I can describe it, of the selected analogs, mainly across the north, agree in Europe, with the US MODEL while here in the states they are more toward the European. But perhaps because of the blood that is in my veins, there are bigger things to prove here than whether I am right or wrong. And I am going to give you a forecast later that sums all this up, because I appreciate the loyalty you have shown and I also have a loyalty to people that came before, a heritage that includes the Calabrian, Foggian and Sicilian areas of the south of europe.

Maybe is in the blood. But my message to you here is there is winter on the way, and I believe what we are seeing is the start of some bigger ticket items in the coming decades, of which lord willing, I will prove also.

So there are some points to debate among free people with open minds and of good will. One will winter be cold ( on a whole for europe I think yes) two: where will it be coldest ( I will try to answer in my usual take a stand form later.. but population weighted, it looks cold. And 3) can Napa valley wines compete with Italian wines ( note remember I am of Italian heritage so please understand) And that probably is the hardest question of all (ha ha)

My readers on this site are important to me, and its Saturday, and I made sure I got to you when I had the chance!

ciao for now ***

[Marcoan]

Oh ma na stramaledetta traduzione no eh !

[Valeloco]

Oh ma na stramaledetta traduzione no eh !

In pratica - estrema sintesi - dice che sarà un inverno molto freddo per parte d'Europa. Ma che al momento lui è tormentato dal fatto di non riuscire a capire quale parte. A breve comunque esprimerà il verdetto definitivo.

[Fabry18]

Oh ma na stramaledetta traduzione no eh !

fa un introduzione sul suo padre italiano e mete a confronto i vini americani con quelli italiano, facendo notare che i periodi buoni delle due tipologia di vino collimano con i cilcli PDO e AMO.
poi dice che dopo il 15/10 metterà la sua previsione sull'inverno europeo, dice solo che sarà freddo, ma dove lo sarà di più ancora non lo sa con certezza.
almeno questo ho capito
non provare a fare con il traduttore di google che viene fuori una cosa immonda

[Knopflertemporalesco]

Dopo lo schifo qui dalle mie parti , da giugno( 30 luglio a parte) non ha fatto NULLA!!!!!!!!!!!! e un inverno con nevicate e minime sotto allo 0 è obbligatorio anche a Roma.

la sola che ho preso oggi è cocente, supercella nel viterbese con 100-150 mm di accumulo...passata a 4 km da casa mia.....


eh se sapessi comprendere quello che ve state a di...sembra prospettarsi un buon inverno (lo interpreto dai commenti entusiasti) ma non capisco nulla .
scommetterei anche che le fregature si susseguiranno per mesi..ehi ma che c'è meteopalio in gita a Roma ?