Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

**meteogio** · 03/05/2007, 10:05

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

not too bad

4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2007

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WRN U.S.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WEAKENING DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 /SUN AND MON/...BUT
DIFFER BEYOND DAY 5 IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AS IT BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NNEWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE SRN/
CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING DAY 4 /SUN
MAY 6TH/ ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH THIS THREAT POTENTIALLY CONTINUING
INTO DAY 5 /MON MAY 7TH/...BUT MAINLY ACROSS W TX.

BEYOND DAY 5...MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE WILL PRECLUDE INCLUSION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREA ACROSS THE PLAINS.

Good luck guys, may the force be with you !

**griffa-petrucci** · 03/05/2007, 17:09

Ahiaiiaiiai ragazzi...May 5: la dry line non produce fino almeno alle 03Z e il macello dovrebbe essere a 150 miglia SW di Ok City. Sono cazzi amari...Lo shear è da paura: ogni cosa che si sviluppa sarà supercellulare e potrebbe fare il tornado di notte...Non lo dico per andare a caccia dato che sarebbe non dura, durissima, ma è una cosa da tenere in conto. Usciremo dall'areoporto alle 9.30-10.00pm e potremmo fare in tempo ad arrivare al nostro target in teoria(Solo se riuscissimo in un tempo ragionevole a prendere le macchine di sera). Vediamo l'aggiornamento di domani.

**debris74** · 03/05/2007, 17:23

Originariamente Scritto da griffa-petrucci

Ahiaiiaiiai ragazzi...May 5: la dry line non produce fino almeno alle 03Z e il macello dovrebbe essere a 150 miglia SW di Ok City. Sono cazzi amari...Lo shear è da paura: ogni cosa che si sviluppa sarà supercellulare e potrebbe fare il tornado di notte...Non lo dico per andare a caccia dato che sarebbe non dura, durissima, ma è una cosa da tenere in conto. Usciremo dall'areoporto alle 9.30-10.00pm e potremmo fare in tempo ad arrivare al nostro target in teoria(Solo se riuscissimo in un tempo ragionevole a prendere le macchine di sera). Vediamo l'aggiornamento di domani.

nn so negro, su ST dicono il contrario:

What I find interesting is how the WRF breaks the cap all along the dryline down to West Texas. If that verified there would supercells from the SD/NE broder to near Mexico! Looking at the GFS, not only does it show the CAP breaking by 00z from the NE/SD border to near Mexico, but it actually shows convection firing in all those regions!

qualsiasi cosa sia cmq nn ci resta che piangere:

Based on the 12Z NAM it looks like we're in for a bigtime severe weather setup with possibly a very significant tornado outbreak on Saturday. Not to say Friday or Sunday look bad, but Saturday...sheesh. I'm especially concerned for Plains residents given the distinct possibility of extended periods of tornadic activity after dark Friday/Saturday, a situation more common in the southeast US, and always more dangerous than daytime stuff. We'll see how this situation pans out, but I'm not surprised the NAM is pulling the 850mb low back toward the Rockies and expanding the risk area further west, as that seems to be the norm for the NAM this year. Looks like the real difficulty Saturday may be figuring out where to go, since one can easily make an argument for anywhere from the Dakotas to west TX.

**debris74** · 03/05/2007, 17:33

nn male cmq il SW OK x domenica. certo che sabato... woodward sabato...

**debris74** · 03/05/2007, 17:42

sono curioso di vedere se esce il MDT al day2 tra un'oretta x Harper Co.

**Aragorth** · 03/05/2007, 18:11

Huh I think there will be widespread deep convection all over from SD down to w TX and even we are able to go out after 10pm, there will be just massive squall-line over wstrn OK during the evening. Would ya risk the nightime tornado in such conditions?

I am telling you, lets go tomorrow

**Matteo Tornado** · 03/05/2007, 18:41

in what zone of USA go the thunderstorms group? I have the radar doppler map on google earth update every 2 minutes

**Matteo Tornado** · 03/05/2007, 18:43

situazione ora

**Aragorth** · 03/05/2007, 18:59

We will land in Oklahoma City and who knows where weather will be pushing us later...you should check the SPC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ website frequently and read TT's blog where we will be. The whole Tornado Alley is our area, depends of setup