Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
Tra S/E OK e Est TX ci sono buone chances. Mix shear e CAPE messo benino.Originariamente Scritto da griffa-petrucci
X domani l'umidità non arriva e per ora lo shear potente che si verrà a creare sarà buttato via. Sono curioso di vedere gli aggiornamenti.
Intanto dalle GFS sembra aprirsi un periodo d'oro per le plains (vedere oltre le 120 ore). CIAO
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
peggiorate le carte per domani.
Scelgo più ad owest rispetto a ieri e direi che la zona fra Childress-Amarillo e Pampa fa al mio caso per quel poco che potrebbe succedere in tardo pom-serata.
And if the cloud bursts Thunder in your ear, You shout and no one seems to hear
----------------------------
always looking at the sky
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
incredible meso near Columbus
and...extra hook-echo!!!!!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PNHDL INTO FAR SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112257Z - 120030Z
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 2245Z...TLH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
FROM DECATUR COUNTY GA SSWWD TO ERN LIBERTY/WRN LEO COUNTIES IN THE
CNTRL FL PNHDL....TO 30-50 MILES SW AAF. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
BE INITIATING ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY OR TROUGH BASED
ON SURFACE OBSERVATION WITH THE LIBERTY/LEO COUNTY FL STORM
EXHIBITING SOME EPISODIC SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S...HOWEVER LOCALLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF ONLY AROUND 500
J/KG.
TLH VWP AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT IS
MODESTLY SHEARED BOTH IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS WITH 0-1 KM SHR OF
150-180 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF AROUND 40.
THEREFORE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THAT
CAN BECOME SUSTAINED. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY ISOLATED OWING TO THE WEAK FORCING AND INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE AREA.
..MEAD.. 04/11/2007
And if the cloud bursts Thunder in your ear, You shout and no one seems to hear
----------------------------
always looking at the sky
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AL INTO W-CNTRL GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...
VALID 112323Z - 120100Z
THROUGH 0030-0100Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST
FROM RUSSELL COUNTY AL EWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
MUSCOGEE...CHATTAHOOCHEE...MARION AND PERHAPS SCHLEY AND MACON
COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL GA. ELSEWHERE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.
AS OF 2310Z...MONTGOMERY AL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO
SUPERCELLS...ONE OVER CHAMBERS COUNTY AL INTO TROUP COUNTY GA AND
THE OTHER AT THE INTERSECTION OF MACON...LEE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES
AL. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE NRN MOST STORM SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS IT MOVES INTO A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER W-CNTRL GA. HOWEVER...THE SRN STORM APPEARS
TO BE MOVING QUITE NEAR THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT WHERE RUC
FORECAST SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS AT CSG
INDICATES MLCAPES OF AROUND 600-700 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. MOREOVER...LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350
M2/S2 PER MODIFICATION OF THIS SOUNDING AND LOCAL VWP DATA.
AS SUCH...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO
CONTINUE FROM THE VICINITY OF CROSSVILLE AND FT. BENNING TO POINTS E
THROUGH 0030-0100Z.
..MEAD.. 04/11/2007
And if the cloud bursts Thunder in your ear, You shout and no one seems to hear
----------------------------
always looking at the sky
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND PART OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MONTGOMERY ALABAMA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL AND INTO WRN GA.
ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY REMAIN INTENSE AS IT LIFTS NNEWD
ACROSS SWRN GA. WARM FRONT IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INTO CENTRAL
AL/GA AND SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN WW. IN
ADDITION TO TORNADOES...STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...EVANS
And if the cloud bursts Thunder in your ear, You shout and no one seems to hear
----------------------------
always looking at the sky
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
notevole
And if the cloud bursts Thunder in your ear, You shout and no one seems to hear
----------------------------
always looking at the sky
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
SPC lancia il MDT Risk per domani.
Cmq secondo me il pattern shear-cape è notevole, e il getto in quota sarà ben presente.
CIAO
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
Grande Benuzzoooooooooo!Beccata in pieno! Supercella grandiosa! Davvero notevole, grazie tante per la segnalazione
Andrea Griffa
www.cacciatoriditornado.it
www.tornado-tour.com
Coautore del libro "temporali e tornado"
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
cioé se fossimo partiti come prevedevi verso il 14 avremmo avuto parecchie possibilità di beccare il previsto outbreak del 17-18 ? porcapupazzola al lavoro
cmq se ti becchi qualcosa in maggio son contento per te (se mi fai vedere le foto)
Re: Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports
cioé se fossimo partiti come prevedevi verso il 14 avremmo avuto parecchie possibilità di beccare il previsto outbreak del 17-18 ? porcapupazzola al lavoro
cmq se ti becchi qualcosa in maggio son contento per te (se mi fai vedere le foto)
tranqui il peggioramento del 17-18 nn sarà gran cosa. il grande quesito è quello che succederà dal 22 al 5 maggio
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