Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

[Ben]

peggiorate le carte per domani.
Scelgo più ad owest rispetto a ieri e direi che la zona fra Childress-Amarillo e Pampa fa al mio caso per quel poco che potrebbe succedere in tardo pom-serata.

ok come zona ci siamo e la convenzione, da poco, é partita.
Vediamo un po che succede.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM INTO W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 122149Z - 122315Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 22-23Z
AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS OVER THE TX
S PLAINS JUST W OF A LBB TO PVW LINE AND OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL
NM...SUGGESTING THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER S-CNTRL NM IS BEGINNING TO ACT ON STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED E OF
LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN N-S FASHION OVER ERN
NM...THE PRESENCE OF THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES IS RESULTING IN A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH SBCAPES
OF AROUND 500 J/KG PER 20Z REESE AFB AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH 0-3 KM
SRH OF AROUND 250 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50 KT. AS
SUCH...EXPECT THAT A FEW STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS DESPITE
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN NM/WRN TX
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD/NEWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/ERN TX
PNHDL LATER THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES.

..MEAD.. 04/12/2007per il momento abbiamo un paio di celle in crescita a sud di Amarillo.