Dura salita o "discesa" verso il default?

Josh · 05/04/2013, 16:18

Stagnation...qui forse c'è la parte più interessante:

Stagnation
Starting with the Rodrigazo in 1975 inflation accelerated sharply, leading to several redenominations of the Argentine currency.

Between 1975 and 1990, real per capita income fell by more than 20%, wiping out almost three decades of economic development.[70] The manufacturing industry, which had experienced a period of uninterrupted growth until the mid-1970s, began a process of continuous decline.[104] The extreme dependence on state support of the many protected industries exacerbated the sharp fall of the industrial output.[105] The degree of industrialisation at the start of the 1990s was similar to its level in the 1940s.[104] In the early 1970s, per capita income in Argentina was twice as high as in Mexico and more than three times as high as in Chile and Brazil. By 1990, the difference in income between Argentina and the other Latin American countries was much smaller.[70]

Starting with the Rodrigazo in 1975, inflation accelerated sharply, reaching an average of more than 300% per year during the 1975–1991 period, increasing prices by a factor of 20 billion.[70]

When Martinez de Hoz assumed power as finance minister prices in the previous month had increased at an annual rate of 5,000% and output had declined sharply.[106] In 1976 the era of import substitution was ended, and the government lowered import barriers, liberalized restrictions on foreign borrowing, and supported the peso against foreign currencies.[7] This opening exposed the fact that domestic firms could not compete with foreign imports, in part because of the overvalued currency, but also because of long-term structural problems.[105] A financial reform was implemented that aimed to liberalize capital markets and link Argentina more effectively with the world capital market.[106]

After the relatively stable years 1976–78, fiscal deﬁcits started to climb again and the external debt trebled in three years.[107] The increased debt burden interrupted industrial development and upward social mobility.[108] Beginning in 1979 the rate of exchange depreciation was pre-fixed with a tablita, an active crawling peg based on a timetable which announced ahead of time a gradually declining rate of depreciation.[106][109] These announcements were repeated on a rolling basis so as to create an environment where economic agents could discern a government commitment to deflation.[106] Inflation responded to this policy and gradually fell throughout 1980 to below 100%.[106] But gradually, during 1978 and 1979, the real exchange rate appreciated because inflation consistently outpaced the rate of depreciation.[106] The overvaluation ultimately led to capital flight and collapse of the financial system.[106]
The failure of Banco de Intercambio Regional in March 1980 led to runs on other banks.[110]

Growing government spending, large wage raises, and inefficient production created a chronic inflation that rose through the 1980s, when it briefly exceeded an annual rate of 1,000%.[7] Successive regimes tried to control inflation through wage and price controls, cuts in public spending, and restriction of the money supply.[7] Efforts to stem the problems came to naught when in 1982 Argentina came into conﬂict with the United Kingdom over the Falkland Islands.[107]
Timeline of Argentine exports from 1975 to 1989

In August 1982, after Mexico had announced its inability to service its debt, Argentina approached the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for ﬁnancial assistance, as it too was in serious difficulties.[107] While developments looked positive for a while, an IMF staff team visiting Buenos Aires in August 1983 discovered a variety of problems, particularly a loss of control over wages affecting both the budget and external competitiveness, and the programme failed.[107] With the peso quickly losing value to inflation, a new peso was introduced in 1983, with 10,000 old pesos exchanged for each new peso.[7]

In December 1983 Raúl Alfonsin was elected President of Argentina, bringing to an end to the military dictatorship.[107] Under Alfonsin, negotiations started on a new programme with the IMF, but they led to nothing.[107] In March 1984, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela lent Argentina $300 million for three months, followed by a similar amount by the United States, providing some breathing space as it was not before late September 1984 that an agreement was reached between the IMF and Argentina.[107]

In 1985 the currency was redenominated again, with the Austral substituting the discredited peso.[107] In 1986, Argentina failed to pay the debt for several months until ultimately the debt was renegotiated with the creditor banks.[111] During 1986 and 1987 the Austral Plan faded away, as ﬁscal policy was undermined by large off-budget spending and a loose monetary policy, again falling out of compliance with an IMF programme.[107] A new IMF arrangement was reached in July 1987, only to collapse in March 1988.[107]

The next move by the authorities was to launch the Plan Primavera in August 1988, consisting of a package of economically heterodox measures that foresaw little ﬁscal adjustment, and this time the IMF, in the absence of ﬁrm policies, refused to resume lending to Argentina.[107] Six months after its introduction the Plan Primavera collapsed, leading to hyperinﬂation,[107] and riots.

Josh · 05/04/2013, 16:21

Beh,se c'è ancora qualcuno che crede che la sovranità monetaria sia garanzia contro un default(detto appunto sovrano,sovereign default),persino non pilotato,una ripassatina di storia dell'economia mal non gli farà.

**Friedrich 91** · 05/04/2013, 16:22

Decennale al 4,37% nell'ultimo aggiornamento

Spread calato di un botto a 315 punti (diff. con la Spagna 40, con l'Irlanda 28). Sa solo il cielo a cos'è dovuto questo ottimismo di fine seduta

**FunMBnel** · 05/04/2013, 16:33

Originariamente Scritto da Stau

Decennale al 4,37% nell'ultimo aggiornamento

Spread calato di un botto a 315 punti (diff. con la Spagna 40, con l'Irlanda 28). Sa solo il cielo a cos'è dovuto questo ottimismo di fine seduta

Secondo me manco lui...
Certo che se me ne fossi accorto 3 minuti prima sarebbe stato meglio...

Josh · 05/04/2013, 16:34

"In the early 1970s, per capita income in Argentina was twice as high as in Mexico and more than three times as high as in Chile and Brazil. By 1990, the difference in income between Argentina and the other Latin American countries was much smaller".
Questo si chiama declino,al mio paese.Vi ricorda qualcosa?

**FunMBnel** · 05/04/2013, 16:49

Ammazza oh... Ho voluto fare il test di 10 domande del sole24ore sui fondi pensione e ho concluso che non ne so veramente un cazzo!

**Fabio68** · 05/04/2013, 21:43

Originariamente Scritto da FunMBnel

Ammazza oh... Ho voluto fare il test di 10 domande del sole24ore sui fondi pensione e ho concluso che non ne so veramente un cazzo!

vabbè Massimo, dacci il link

così possiamo pure noi dimostrare le nostre competenze

Originariamente Scritto da NoSync

Il tasso dei BTp francesi cade al minimo storico (1,76%). Perché Parigi ha un deficit/Pil più alto di Roma ma paga 270 punti base in meno - Il Sole 24 ORE

letto l'articolo del sole 24 ore, il link precedente postato quest'oggi sempre del sole 24 ore mi ha fatto scompisciare dal ridere con le frasi dell'articolista per cui lo S.M.E. era il Sistema Monetario ELETTRONICO \fp\ e Soros, per mettere in crisi la Gran Bretagna nel 1992, vendette l'equivalente in sterline di 10 MILA miliardi di dollari \fp\ \fp\ (e chi è?? Paperon de Paperoni e Rockerduck messi insieme??)

invece di questo articolo leggo i commenti postati da semplici lettori e mi mette paura uno in particolare:

Questi sono i risultati prodotti dall'euro creato dalla Germania e dalla Francia negli anni '90.
Questi due paesi si rifanno scaricando tutto sui paesi del Sud-Europa, credo che l'uscita dall'euro per l'Italia sia l'unica soluzione davvero percorribile. Una volta tornati alla Lira potremmo fare come ha fatto la Svizzera un anno fa, e cioè bloccare il tasso di cambio a 1,20 franchi per Euro.

ma si, decidiamo noi il tasso di cambio a seconda delle nostre convenienze:

quando dobbiamo vendere i nostri prodotti abbassiamo il valore della Lira, mentre quando dobbiamo comprare dai mercati esteri (tipo gas, petrolio, materie prime) alziamo il valore della Lira

che grandi che siamo

**Stefano De C.** · 05/04/2013, 23:32