Temperature globali

[elz]

in realtà lo spiegano loro stessi qui:

October 2024 ENSO update: spooky season | NOAA Climate.gov

ENSO is predictable, but only in the big picture, meaning seasonal averages or longer. The signals that tell us that El Niño or La Niña are on the way, such as a large amount of cooler or warmer water under the ocean surface, or a particularly strong, long-lasting shift in the trade winds, are reliable indicators. Also, our computer climate models, which look at current conditions and make predictions based on mathematical and physical equations, are pretty good, especially after the spring barrier (a time of year when predictions are especially difficult).
However, small, short-term fluctuations, such as the weaker equatorial trade winds that occurred during September, can’t be predicted more than a couple of weeks (at best) in advance. They tend to have a disproportionate impact during borderline, more marginal situations when we are hovering near our ENSO thresholds. These small fluctuations can tip the scales one way or the other. In this case, they’ve added up to a slower and weaker La Niña development. That said, many of our models are holding steady for La Niña to develop shortly.

Il fatto è che la variabilità intrastagionale non è prevedibile ne dal noaa ne da nessun altro, le previsioni rimangono di la nina (debole) poichè continua ad esserci un anomalia subsuperficiale sufficiente e i modelli continuano a privilegiare la nina (seppur meno che nei mesi scorsi), ma in una fase di transizione piccole modifiche random possono portare a grosse conseguenze, sarebbe diverso se fossimo in una fase enso ben stabilita.

Nel prossimo futuro c'è una nuova fase di venti deboli in arrivo ad est.