Citazione Originariamente Scritto da debris74 Visualizza Messaggio
SPC ogni 6 ore cambia idea:

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...AND
NORTHWEST TX......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NEB INTO CENTRAL TX...

VIGOROUS TROUGH INLAND THIS AM SWRN U.S. ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE SRN
PLAINS...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW DEVELOPING SERN
CO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEEPENING RAPIDLY TONIGHT INTO WRN KS
WITH APPROACH OF THE INTENSE UPPER TROUGH.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...AS THE ONLY
QUESTION ON POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/TORNADO OUTBREAK IS
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

THE 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES
TO INCREASE GULF MOISTURE NWD SO THAT BY LATE AFTERNOON LOW/MID 50
DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD THRU ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO SWRN KS WITH
NEAR 50 DEWPOINTS TO SWRN NEB/KS BORDER. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER THE
AIR MASS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH
THE MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD INTO SRN
HI PLAINS BY THIS EVENING MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG E
OF DRY LINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM DEEPENING LOW SERN
CO/WRN KS SWD THRU ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX.

OVERNIGHT THE MODELS BASICALLY AGREE THAT AN INTENSE LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SPREAD INTO WRN
OK/NWRN TX AS 110-120KT 500 WIND MAX DRIVES EWD INTO SWRN TX. IN
ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SQUALL LINE THE MORE CONDITIONAL
THREAT EXISTS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ALONG AND JUST TO EAST OF THE DRY LINE FROM TX PANHANDLE
INTO WRN KS WHERE CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED
INITIATION. ANY STORM THAT FORMS IN THIS AREA EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH ACCOMPANYING LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO
THREAT. THE VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE BY THIS EVENING
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...PROVIDED AIR MASS DEVELOPS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.

A MORE ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE THREAT...POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT...INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE
DRIVES EWD AHEAD OF THE INTENSE TROUGH. ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE
THERE WILL ALSO BE THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. THIS
SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR E AS SCENTRAL KS/ERN OK
NCENTRAL TX BY 12Z SAT.

Debris scusa se magari ti faccio una domanda stupidissima, ma non ho ancora capito com funziona bene un chasing virtuale...
Potresti spiegarmelo velocemente e in modo semplice??
Vedo ceh ognuno di voi ha scelto una zona particolare, ma poi avete anche parlato di strade, che tu arriveresti da nord ecc ecc
Che significa questo?Grazie e scusa per la stupidità della domanda