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Uragano
Re: Vortice Polare inverno 2021/2022
Bastava scrivere Jet stream predictor, mi paiono vecchi i studi e addirittura pensavate che me lo fossi inventato io,
basta fare reanalisi:
The Vertical Structure of Annular Modes in: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Volume 75 Issue 10 (2018)
Extensive observational and modeling evidence suggests that fluctuations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex impact the tropospheric midlatitude jet and storm tracks (e.g., Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001). In turn, the variability of the extratropical winter stratosphere is influenced by the propagation and breaking of planetary-scale waves of tropospheric origin (e.g., Scaife and James 2000). Annular modes have been used to characterize these two-way interactions between the troposphere and stratosphere; for example, Baldwin and Dunkerton (1999, 2001) and others have noted a correlation between the first EOF in the stratosphere (representing changes in the strength of the polar vortex) and the tropospheric annular mode (representing latitudinal shifts of the midlatitude jet). Anomalous values of the annular mode in the stratosphere appear to be followed by like-signed anomalies in the troposphere, all the way to Earth’s surface, and these anomalies can sometimes persist for longer than a month, a finding that has led to the suggestion that resolving stratospheric variability in a model could enhance seasonal forecasting (e.g., Baldwin et al. 2003; Tripathi et al. 2015; Scaife et al. 2016). Studies also suggest that the persistence of the midlatitude jet and storm tracks is larger in “active” periods in the lower stratosphere, that is, midwinter in the Arctic and spring in the Antarctic (Baldwin et al. 2003; Sheshadri and Plumb 2016; Byrne et al. 2017).
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