Tornado Alley Forecasts, Nowcasting and Reports

**debris74** · 27/03/2007, 20:07

Originariamente Scritto da griffa-petrucci

Eh ciccio...Decisione davvero difficile..Essere a caccia con un setup così puzza di bruciato un casino..
Cmq per ora è troppo presto per prendere una decisione..Aspetto il run delle 12Z delle Ruc, confronto con Eta e poi decido. Cmq lo shear sul triple è altissimo, ma è alto anche sulla dryline..Dalla ventilazione pare che le celle rimarranno isolate per poco..La probabilità di supercelle rimane confinata ai primi momenti.
Devo dire che il fronte caldo mi attira ma è troppo in alto..Forse è davvero meglio la dry in settori più meridionali..Che fare?Aspetto domani(come faremmo nelle Plains del resto) e elaboro il mio target

ti ricordi l'11 Maggio 2005? quando ce la siamo giocata sul fronte caldo/triple point? io dopo quella giornata in situazioni simili nn ci voglio + stare sul warm

dalle carte quali sono i parametri da guardare x capire meglio qualse saranno le zone con celle + isolate? magari davanti alla squall

**Aragorth** · 27/03/2007, 21:48

Hey guys,

I got a bit of a bad feeling, too...after looked at some more stuff. It does look quite a tricky situation again, hard to say whats better...playing so much to the nothern part of dryline in nnw KS into sw NE or a bit east of there...McCock...err.. McCook, NE indeed sounds sweet. Or maybe Colby, KS for the upper target.

Or hmmm....in the other way...OK/TX Panhandle into KS Panhandle looked nice at first, the only shitty thing there is LL flow...its SW direction, useless

Its much better more to the east in north OK...I'd pick up Alva, OK as possible second spot. Nice backing winds with impressive flow above. But again temp at 700hPa is too high so it won't break the cap before night as NAM says...wasted.

I tell you, I am rather staying at my first target...Comcordia, KS with my foot on a pedal to quickly move maybe to Phillipsburg, KS about 80-100mi west. I dislike these "jumps" all around, not good. But I am so excited about tomorrow action.

I just hope there will be more isolated stuff at first before it merges into major squall-line when dryline will be pushed east faster.

A presto!

**debris74** · 27/03/2007, 22:17

Western Oklahoma is looking better with each model run. The slower the system, and further south near the base of the trough, the more veered the mid-level flow, which will help storms quickly get off the boundary. The 18z NAM KCSM (Clinton) sounding looks very good. Deep layer shear and storm motions are much better for chasing.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/par...ATIO NID=kcsm

My concern is the completely mixed boundary layer along the dryline which could lead to too many storms. All of the models have been eroding the BL capping inversion completely leading to free convection.
__________________
Adam Atkins

io dopo aver letto anche qualche parere su ST, se mi trovassi la me la giocherei nell'ovest OK

**Aragorth** · 28/03/2007, 07:05

You sure it will erode the cap enough early there in western OK? It looks better with LL jet now and I am still worried by those 700hPa temps by GFS, but NAM looks favorable there on the other way

I am staying up north, targeting Norton, KS for now

**debris74** · 28/03/2007, 07:49

Originariamente Scritto da Aragorth

You sure it will erode the cap enough early there in western OK? It looks better with LL jet now and I am still worried by those 700hPa temps by GFS, but NAM looks favorable there on the other way

I am staying up north, targeting Norton, KS for now

I'm quite confident that western OK, even TX panhandle, is the best and friendly/easy solution for a real-chase. McCook, NE down to Concordia, KS is the best virtual area for tornadoes but I think storms will be not so easy chaseable

btw, sry for my bad eng. (just woke up)

**debris74** · 28/03/2007, 07:51

SPC MDT risk for my real-chase target area:

...SRN GREAT PLAINS...
FARTHER SOUTH...SEPARATION BETWEEN DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT MAY BE
GREATER FROM SWRN KS ACROSS OK/TX. SITUATION APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
DRYLINE SUPERCELL INITIATION ACROSS THESE AREAS PRIOR TO COLD FRONT
ADVANCING EAST AND MERGING WITH THE DRYLINE...MOST LIKELY AFTER
DARK. HERE TOO...ENVIRONMENT APPEARS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF MYRIAD OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO OVER
40KT ACROSS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF AT
LEAST 2000 J/KG.

OTHER THAN CONFLUENCE ZONE NEAR THE DRYLINE...LACK OF STRONGLY
DEFINED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IN THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST CELLS MAY
REMAIN DISCRETE IN NATURE AS EFFECTIVE SRH LOCALLY INCREASES TO OVER
300 M2/S2 THROUGH 00Z. SPC ANALOG SOUNDING SYSTEM REVEALS A FEW
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO MATCHES BASED ON NAM-WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NWRN TX/WRN OK VALID AROUND 00Z. PRESENT INDICATIONS BASED ON A
VARIETY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOST SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR A
STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY EVOLVE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM NWRN TX TO SWRN KS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PROXIMITY TO GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THIS AREA COULD SUPPORT A
COUPLE OF LONGER-TRACK DANGEROUS STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...SPC HAIL
MODEL BASED ON NAM-WRF INPUT SOUNDINGS GENERATES HAILSTONE DIAMETERS
OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AREA WHERE STORM
INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TENDENCY FOR STORM MERGERS AND INCREASING FORCING ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO QLCS DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK. SLOW
EWD TRANSITION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BY THIS TIME SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO DEVELOP EWD. THIS MAY RESULT
IN A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.... HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

Cumulo · 28/03/2007, 07:51

Me la gioco da Ponca City.
Anche su Storm Track (da quel che posso capire, il mio inglese non è perfetto) pareri molto discordanti sui possibili target di oggi.
Cmq i modelli (WRF e GFS in particolare) mi paiono migliorati dal punto di vista dello shear anche su zona quali Texas settentrionale ed Oklahoma.
Staremo a vedere che combina, ciauz

**griffa-petrucci** · 28/03/2007, 08:06

Dunque ragazzi per ora il mio target si trasferisce più in basso..Almeno da ste ultime carte non mi sembra la giornata da fronte caldo..Per ora mi fermo a Shamrock Tx ma aspetto le 12Z per la conferma.
Cmq biosgna vedere se le celle riusciranno a rimanere isolate..Ho paura che questo pattern lascierà con la bocca amara parecchi cacciatori. La convergenza è forte e ho paura che una squallona prenda presto il sopravvento. Cnq nelle prime fasi qualche sup ci può stare. Cmq non mi pare un setup da High risk a meno di qualche aggiornamento folle alle 12Z